Will he stay, or will he go? For Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the latter appears imminent. Bettors on Polymarket are currently engaged in discussions regarding the timing of his possible resignation announcement.
While contracts predicting Trudeau’s resignation are not new, there are two with accumulated volumes in the low six-figure range, focusing on whether he will be gone by February or April. Additionally, another contract from December inquires if opposition parties will trigger an election by spring.
The renewed interest in Trudeau’s fate surged on Monday following reports from two of Canada’s leading newspapers, suggesting that his resignation could occur as early as Monday or before Wednesday.
The Toronto Star indicated that an announcement might come as soon as Monday, while the Globe and Mail, which broke the news, noted that the statement would precede a national Liberal Party caucus meeting scheduled for Wednesday.
Polymarket bettors, however, seem skeptical about an earlier announcement. A contract betting on Trudeau’s resignation on Monday has recorded over $45,000 in volume, indicating only a 24% likelihood that the week will commence with his departure.
Another contract, which questions if the Prime Minister will resign by Wednesday, gives a better chance at 72%, albeit with a smaller volume of around $10,000. A third contract predicting his exit by Friday places the likelihood at 80%.
While both the Toronto Star and the Globe and Mail cite their sources affirming that a resignation is imminent, Reuters reports a contrasting perspective, claiming that Trudeau has yet to finalize his decision.
As for public sentiment, Angus Reid, a prominent Canadian polling agency, recently revealed that Trudeau holds a mere 22% approval rating. Current polling aggregators suggest that, were an election to be conducted today, Trudeau’s Liberals would face a severe loss, potentially capturing only 46 seats against the Conservatives’ 225, thus handing the latter a majority in Canada’s Parliament.
Interestingly, Polymarket bettors are also assessing other scenarios, with a 3% probability of Canada joining the United States as the 51st state by July—a notion that originated as a jest stemming from President-elect Donald Trump’s social media posts.
