Bitcoin (BTC) is currently consolidating within a narrow range between $107,000 and $109,000, hovering just a few percentage points away from its all-time high. Despite this apparent stability, a closer examination of on-chain data reveals a potential shift in sentiment among some of the market’s key players – the large holders referred to as whales.
One valuable tool in assessing market dynamics is Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score. This metric provides insight into accumulation behavior across different wallet-size cohorts by evaluating the strength of purchasing activity based on the size of wallet entities and the volume of Bitcoin acquired over the previous 15 days. For the largest holders, identified as entities with 10,000 BTC or more, this score has fallen to 0.4. A reading closer to 1 typically indicates strong accumulation, while a score near 0 suggests the opposite: a tendency to sell. Notably, wallets connected to exchanges and miners are excluded to refine the analysis of investor behavior.
Entities classified as whales were the pioneers in accumulating Bitcoin at the market’s April lows, roughly around $75,000. However, recent trends suggest that these large holders are beginning to reduce their positions even as other wallet cohorts continue to accumulate. This shift hints at a strategic repositioning that may suggest a desire to secure profits close to historic highs or indicate a more cautious perspective regarding short-term price movements.
Visual data further underscores this behavioral transformation. Whale wallets exhibited a consistent pattern of withdrawing Bitcoin from exchanges over the past month—a bullish sign indicating holders were not planning immediate sales. Nevertheless, this trend appears to be reversing, with two out of the last three days witnessing significant BTC deposits back into exchanges. This behavior is often associated with impending selling activity.
This nuanced behavior naturally prompts an important question: Are whales bracing for a local top? As the market navigates this consolidation phase, investors must remain vigilant, observing whale activity and market indicators that could dictate the future trajectory of Bitcoin prices.
