The United States is facing a 40% probability of entering a recession by 2025, a possibility driven by ongoing trade tensions and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. This forecast, presented by Nic Puckrin, the founder of Coin Bureau, indicates that while a recession is not an immediate certainty, its likelihood has significantly increased.
In a recent interview, Puckrin noted that factors contributing to this potential recession include policies initiated by the Trump administration, such as reductions in federal employment and spending, which may inadvertently lead to economic contraction.
“Trump and his advisors have said they have not completely dismissed the recession, which means it is definitely possible, but right now, I would not say it is probable, but the odds have climbed a lot.”
As the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) experiences declines, investors are reallocating their resources towards European markets, seeking refuge from the prevailing economic uncertainty. Puckrin emphasized that this macroeconomic turbulence has been a primary factor influencing the DXY’s recent downturn, further reflecting a shift in market sentiment.
The DXY, which tracks the strength of the US dollar, took a nosedive in March 2025. Source: TradingView
Trade War Implications on Cryptocurrency Markets
Moreover, President Trump’s strategy regarding tariffs against U.S. trading partners has sparked significant unrest within the cryptocurrency market. This policy has led to a discernible decrease in altcoin values and a substantial correction of approximately 24% in Bitcoin’s price from its January peak of over $109,000.
These developments have shifted market sentiments from optimism following Trump’s re-election to extreme uncertainty, with the total crypto market cap reflecting this volatility. The adverse effects of trade wars are anticipated to continue impacting cryptocurrency values until April 2025, according to insights from Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard.
The price of Bitcoin has been struggling amid the trade war headlines and is currently trading below its 200-day exponential moving average. Source: TradingView
As the market navigates these turbulent waters, analysts hold onto the hope that resolving trade issues could stabilize cryptocurrency values. Recent comments from Markus Thielen of 10x Research suggest that Bitcoin could be establishing a price bottom as the Trump administration seems to be softening its tariff approach. This indicates a potential turnaround for investors and stakeholders in the cryptocurrency space.
In light of these unfolding events, understanding the intersection between macroeconomic policy decisions and cryptocurrency market dynamics will be crucial for making informed investment choices in the coming years.
