The current Bitcoin (BTC) bear market, typically defined as a 20% or more drop from all-time highs, presents a relatively mild scenario according to market analyst Timothy Peterson, author of Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin’s Value. He forecasts that this bear trend will last approximately 90 days.
Peterson has analyzed the current downturn alongside ten previous bear markets, which arise roughly once annually. Notably, he identified only four bear markets with longer durations, specifically in 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2024.
He offers an optimistic viewpoint for BTC price trajectories, stating that it likely will not dip significantly below the $50,000 mark. He attributed this expectation to ongoing adoption trends within the crypto space. Additionally, Peterson emphasized that the chances of BTC falling below $80,000 remain low.
“There may be a slide in the next 30 days followed by a 20-40% rally around April 15. This pattern, seen in the charts around day 120, could entice weak hands back into the market, potentially driving Bitcoin’s price even higher.”
The fluctuations in the crypto markets were exacerbated by external factors, including the recent tariffs imposed by U.S. President Trump on several trading partners, igniting fears of a protracted trade war. Such macroeconomic shifts can considerably impact investors’ appetite for risk-on assets.
Comparison of every bear market since 2025. Source: Timothy Peterson
Investor interest in speculative assets, particularly cryptocurrencies, has declined in light of ongoing trade tensions and economic uncertainties. Data from the Glassnode Hot Supply metric shows a substantial decrease in BTC held for a week or less—from 5.9% during the historic bull rally of November 2024 down to just 2.3% as of March 20.
According to Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard, crypto markets are expected to endure pressures stemming from the trade war until at least April 2025, when potential international negotiations may mitigate or resolve trade tariffs.
Furthermore, analysis from CryptoQuant indicates that a large segment of retail traders is already invested in BTC, suggesting that the anticipated influx of new retail capital, traditionally viewed as a price-supporting factor, may not materialize in the near term.
The ongoing trade war has also cast doubt on Bitcoin’s narrative as a safe haven asset, given its price movements mirroring those of traditional risk and speculative assets during tariff announcements.
This analysis serves as an essential field guide for investors navigating the complexities of the current market climate. Ongoing economic dynamics will play a crucial role in shaping Bitcoin’s future valuation, and vigilance will remain paramount for stakeholders in the cryptocurrency arena.
Note: This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading decisions carry risks, and readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making financial commitments.
