Understanding the Closure of CME Futures Gaps in Bitcoin Trading

On Monday, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price experienced a significant drop on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures market, dipping to a low of approximately $76,700. This decline marks the official closure of the CME futures gap that emerged on November 5, coinciding with President Trump’s victory in the U.S. election.

Earlier this year, at the end of February, Bitcoin had a brief downturn to around $78,500, which partially filled the previously mentioned gap, as the lowest point of that gap was recorded at $77,400. However, despite this movement, the CME futures did not drop sufficiently at that time to completely close the gap. The recent plunge to $76,700 has rectified this, fully closing the gap that ranges from $77,930 to $80,600.

To provide context, the CME Bitcoin futures operate under different trading hours compared to traditional spot markets. Specifically, CME futures trade 23 hours a day from Sunday through Friday, while Bitcoin spot markets are open 24/7. Gaps in futures prices typically occur due to the variance between the closing price of the futures market and the opening price for the subsequent day, which can arise from lack of trading activity during off-hours.

Recent research by CoinDesk highlights that out of 80 previous CME futures gaps, nearly all have been filled at some point, with only one exception. Notably, there remains an outstanding gap between prices of $84,200 and $85,900, indicating potential future activity in that range as market dynamics continue to evolve.

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