Technical analyst Kevin, better known on X as @Kev_Capital_TA, reignited discussions about Dogecoin’s market structure this past Sunday. He advised traders to disregard the incessant technical analysis (TA) on the meme coin that often serves more to drive engagement than to provide substantive insights. “Not much has changed for Dogecoin here,” he stated, urging traders to focus on the two critical signals that have dictated the coin’s price trajectory for over two years.
Dogecoin’s Fate Hinges On This
Kevin’s analysis centers around the weekly chart he shared on June 26, when Dogecoin (DOGE) was trading close to $0.166. According to his chart, DOGE was positioned right above an ascending support cluster that has been pivotal in defining its major movements since the bear market of 2022. He noted, “Looking at Dogecoin on the weekly time frame, we can see that since the breakout from the bear market on the weekly RSI in 2022, every time DOGE reaches this level—which has occurred five times now—it has resulted in significant price bounces. A failure to maintain this weekly RSI level, coupled with a dip below the $0.143-$0.127 range, would signify a critical shift towards prolonged bearish trends or the continuation of bullish momentum.”
The technical indicators place Dogecoin precariously above a cluster involving the green 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level ($0.13778), the upper boundary of a declining trend line established in May 2021, as well as the weekly 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Previously, Kevin had emphasized the importance of holding these moving averages, along with the macro 0.382 and downtrending support for Dogecoin’s stability. Below these support levels lies the crucial price range of $0.143-$0.127, which Kevin has explicitly highlighted with vivid yellow trend lines.
On examining the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI), a similar narrative emerges. Kevin has annotated a white band just above the 40 mark, noting that the yellow RSI has tapped this area five times, coinciding with priced troughs indicated on the main chart. Although the oscillator’s simple moving average (plotted in magenta) has dipped below 50, it’s still above the 40-support level, maintaining a constructive pattern.
In addition to this, Kevin’s chart features a series of Fibonacci retracement levels above, marking potential resistance points: the 0.5 retracement at $0.18988 (red), the closely positioned 0.618 ($0.26169) and 0.65 ($0.28548) (yellow), and the 0.786 ($0.41317) (blue). Moreover, large violet supply zones are illustrated between $1.00 and $1.30, and again around $2.20 and $2.70, pointing towards areas that could signify a future bull run. However, Kevin refrains from speculating on the timeline for these potential scenarios, stressing that maintaining the current support cluster is a prerequisite for any upward momentum.
Kevin also expanded his analysis to encompass the broader digital asset landscape, suggesting that significant movements in altcoins have yet to materialize. He posited that such potential breakouts could be tied to a macro-economic environment conducive to easing market conditions. “Altcoins need the right ingredients to outperform Bitcoin over an extended period; we are closer than many recognize; we just need a few more factors to align,” he commented.
For now, Kevin’s message is simplified: monitor the weekly RSI band and the critical price shelf of $0.143-$0.127. As long as these levels hold their ground, Kevin sees no reason to revise his current bullish outlook, irrespective of the crowd of analysts commenting on Dogecoin’s performance.
As of the latest update, DOGE is trading at $0.172.
