Bitcoin balances on exchanges just hit a five-year low, signaling significant changes in market dynamics. According to Swan, a BTC financial services firm, as of May 1, various factors are contributing to this reduction in exchange holdings.
“MicroStrategy just added 15,000 more BTC, ETFs are stacking, and sovereign wealth is circling,” Swan observed. “So why isn’t the price exploding?”
Currently, Bitcoin has faced resistance at the $95,000 level, remaining in a state of consolidation for the past week.
Next Move Won’t Be Linear
Swan analysts have highlighted that an increasing amount of BTC is being moved to cold storage, which is generally seen as a positive indicator of long-term conviction. Nevertheless, a large quantity of Bitcoin is also transitioning into institutional custody, including ETFs and fund administrators. As one analyst pointed out, “The coins aren’t gone. They’re just moving upstream.”
Bitcoin balances on exchanges just hit a 5-year low.
Meanwhile:
•MicroStrategy just added 15,000 more BTC
•ETFs are stacking
•Sovereign wealth is circling
So why isn’t the price exploding?— Swan (@Swan) April 30, 2025
Moreover, it’s important to note that not all of this Bitcoin is dormant; some is actively engaged in structured products, yield platforms, or collateral, which adds complexity to immediate price increases.
“Bitcoin is still a market, and in markets, sellers never disappear.”
The current selling activity can be attributed to various market participants—traders seeking short-term profits, long-term holders cashing in on gains, and speculators who may lack a comprehensive understanding of their investments.
Commenting on Strategy’s recent accumulation of BTC, it is estimated that miners produce around 13,500 BTC per month. However, one firm has consistently outpaced that production through strategic financial maneuvers, creating what has been described as a “synthetic halving.”
They are not merely buying; they are effectively “compressing Bitcoin’s supply curve from the outside,” as analysts noted, emphasizing that while the supply is dwindling, price movements will reflect demand fluctuations.
“So yes, supply is drying up. But price moves when demand breaks the equilibrium. And with infinite fiat chasing a truly scarce asset, Bitcoin’s next move won’t be linear. It will be violent. And likely irreversible.”
Analyst “Rekt Capital” also provided insights into Bitcoin’s price discovery roadmap, suggesting that the asset is working to finalize its first price discovery correction to pave the way for a second price uptrend.
Bitcoin Price Discovery Roadmap
Bitcoin is trying to finalize its First Price Discovery Correction (green) to transition into its Second Price Discovery Uptrend (red)
(Prices and time horizons are not to scale)$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/yfY3h60Ywy
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) April 30, 2025
Bitcoin Price Outlook
This week, Bitcoin fell to an intraday low below $93,400 but later rebounded to around $94,800 during the Thursday morning Asian trading session. Currently, the asset is tightly range-bound between $93,000 and just over $95,000. Nevertheless, it has garnered more than 12% gains in the last month, showing a strong recovery from an early April dip to $75,000.
Glassnode reported that Bitcoin is currently testing critical resistance levels between $93K and $95K, suggesting it is breaking a downtrend and establishing higher highs. They further noted that both on-chain and technical signals indicate that the market may be at a pivotal turning point.
In summary, as Bitcoin’s supply shrinks and institutional interest persistently grows, the market is ripe for potential volatility, setting the stage for what may become significant price movements in the near future.
