Bitcoin’s (BTC) four-year cycle, anchored around halving events, is widely recognized as a key factor in BTC’s year-over-year price growth. Within this framework, traders expect distinct phases: accumulation, parabolic rallies, and eventual crashes.
Throughout the four-year period, shorter-duration cycles also emerge, often driven by shifts in market sentiment and the behaviors of long- and short-term holders. These cycles, shaped by the psychological patterns of market participants, can provide insights into Bitcoin’s next moves.
Bitcoin Whales Accumulate Amid Market Retreat
Long-term Bitcoin holders—those holding for three to five years—are typically considered the most seasoned participants. Wealthier and more experienced, they can weather extended bear markets and tend to sell near local tops. According to recent data from Glassnode, long-term holders distributed over 2 million BTC in two distinct waves during the current cycle. Both waves were followed by strong reaccumulation, helping to absorb sell-side pressure and contribute to a more stable price structure. Currently, long-term Bitcoin holders are in a new accumulation period, with their wealth increasing sharply by almost 363,000 BTC since mid-February.
Total BTC supply held by long-term holders. Source: Glassnode
Within this context, Bitcoin whales—addresses holding over 1,000 BTC—are often more seasoned than the average market participant. Currently, there are 93 mega-whales holding more than 10,000 BTC, according to BitInfoCharts. Their recent activity points to ongoing accumulation, which is significant for market sentiment.
Glassnode data shows that large whales briefly reached a perfect accumulation score (~1.0) in early April, indicating intense buying over a 15-day period. Although the score has since eased to ~0.65, it still reflects consistent accumulation. These large holders seem to be acquiring Bitcoin from smaller cohorts—specifically wallets with less than 1 BTC and those with under 100 BTC—whose accumulation scores have dipped toward 0.1–0.2. This divergence signals a growing distribution from retail to large holders, marking potential for future price support, as whales tend to hold over the long term. Such accumulation patterns often precede bullish periods.
The last time mega-whales achieved a perfect accumulation score was in August 2024, when Bitcoin was trading near $60,000. Two months later, BTC surged to $108,000.
BTC trend accumulation score by cohort. Source: Glassnode
The Impact of Market Sentiment on Short-Term Holders
Short-term holders, typically defined as those holding BTC for 3 to 6 months, behave differently. More prone to selling during corrections or uncertain periods, short-term holders’ spending levels show a cyclical pattern, rising and falling approximately every 8 to 12 months.
Currently, short-term holders’ spending activity is at a historically low point despite a turbulent macro environment. This suggests that many newer Bitcoin buyers are choosing to hold rather than panic-sell. However, if Bitcoin’s price continues to decline, short-term holders may be the first to sell, potentially accelerating the downturn.
BTC short-term holders’ spending activity. Source: Glassnode
Markets are driven by human emotion. Factors such as fear, greed, denial, and euphoria shape individual decisions and the entire market trajectory. This cyclical behavioral phenomenon is reflected in the CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed Index, which aggregates various market indicators and typically cycles every 3 to 5 months.
Since February, market sentiment has predominantly remained within the fear and extreme fear zone, further exacerbated by geopolitical issues and declines in the global stock market. Nevertheless, human psychology tends to be cyclical, suggesting a potential return to a “neutral” sentiment within the next 1-3 months.
Fear & Greed Index chart. Source: CoinMarketCap
The fascinating aspect of market cycles lies in their self-fulfilling nature. When enough participants believe in a pattern, they start acting on it, which reinforces the cycle further. Bitcoin exemplifies this phenomenon, where its cycles may not operate on precise schedules, but their consistency shapes market expectations and subsequently influences outcomes.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
