Treasury Secretary Howard Lutnick asserts that the U.S. economy is significantly sound, despite growing apprehensions on Wall Street about a potential recession looming in the near future. During a recent appearance on Meet the Press, he firmly denied the notion, stating, “Absolutely not,” when asked if Americans should brace themselves for an economic downturn.
“There’s going to be no recession in America,” Lutnick confidently declared, likening the current economic sentiment to the skepticism expressed about Donald Trump’s potential for success in the past. He contended that the former president is a winner who will ultimately benefit the American populace.
According to economic definitions, a recession is typically marked by two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, a situation often induced by a mixture of internal and external factors. Lutnick’s remarks starkly contrast with previous comments made by the President, who did not dismiss the possibility of a recession, hinting that it could be part of a necessary economic transition.
In Lutnick’s view, Trump’s tariff strategies are designed to compel foreign nations to reduce their trade barriers, which he argues will activate unprecedented growth within the United States, generating approximately $1.3 trillion in new investments. “We’re going to unleash America out to the world,” he emphasized in response to cautionary predictions from major financial firms such as JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs regarding the potential adverse impacts of tariffs on the economy.
While Lutnick recognized that tariffs could result in increased costs for foreign goods, he framed this as part of a broader initiative to narrow the budget deficit and decrease borrowing costs. “When you balance the budget… you drive interest rates down 150 basis points. Mortgages come smashing down. The cost of your home will come smashing down,” he said.
Notably, the crypto market painted a different picture of economic sentiment, with Bitcoin (BTC) experiencing a 7% drop on Sunday, reaching a low of $80,000, closely approaching its minimal valuation of $78,000 anticipated for 2025. Other cryptocurrencies, including Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP (XRP), also followed suit, while meme coins like Dogecoin (DOGE) and Cardano (ADA) suffered declines of nearly 12%.
Market odds on Polymarket indicate that traders are increasingly preparing for a potential economic slowdown, with expectations of a recession occurring by 2025 now sitting at 41%, a notable rise of 16% in recent weeks.
Meanwhile, the latest U.S. jobs report revealed that 151,000 jobs were added in February, aligning closely with forecasts, although the unemployment rate climbed to 4.1%, and previous job gains from January were revised downward. However, upcoming layoffs in the public sector as part of the White House’s employment initiatives may lead to a spike in these numbers in the next quarter.
Although labor market strength has helped stave off recession predictions, indications of slowing growth are becoming apparent, evidenced by the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecasting a negative 2.8% growth rate for the first quarter. Nevertheless, another market contract indicates a mere 3% likelihood of a recession occurring before May, with the first quarter concluding on March 31.
