As we approach the final trading day of March, Bitcoin is set to mark a significant downturn, with its price dipping to $81,656, reflecting a potential weak performance for the first quarter—the worst since 2018.
Recent anxiety among cryptocurrency and stock traders can be largely attributed to U.S. President Trump’s announcement of a fresh wave of 25% tariffs on imported cars, along with looming threats against the pharmaceutical sector. These tariffs, which Trump has dubbed “Liberation Day” on April 2, have understandably shaken confidence among traders who are now on edge.
At the time of writing, stock futures are already struggling, with the DOW down 206 points and the S&P futures experiencing a decline of 0.56%. Predictably, Bitcoin’s trajectory parallels that of the equities markets, having achieved seven consecutive days of lower pricing.
US futures markets performance on March 30. Source: X / Spencer Hakimian
March’s tumultuous journey for the stock markets appears to be concluding with notable losses: the S&P 500 is down 6.3%, while the Nasdaq and DOW have recorded respective declines of 8.1% and 5.2%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s continual downward trend is linked to a lack of demand in spot markets and a cautious approach from traders hesitant to engage with Bitcoin’s future contracts.
Exacerbating concerns, last week’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data showed a higher-than-expected rise in inflation. Furthermore, March’s consumer confidence data reflected a disheartening 12-year low, which inevitably impacts market sentiment.
Consumer confidence present situation and future expectations data. Source: The Conference Board
The potential for recession is becoming more pronounced, with Goldman Sachs increasing estimates for a 12-month recession probability from 20% to 35%. Analysts note this adjustment stems from declining economic growth forecasts, alongside sharp decreases in household and business confidence.
“The upgrade from our previous 20% estimate reflects our lower growth outlook, the sharp recent deterioration in household and business confidence and statements from White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of their policies.”
US recession odds raised by Goldman Sachs. Source: X / Peter Berezin
Is There a Silver Lining for Bitcoin?
Amid this turmoil, some analysts are downgrading their optimistic predictions for Bitcoin’s price, adjusting forecasts to expect a move toward the mid $70,000 range. However, there remains cautious optimism; institutional investors continue to make Bitcoin purchases, and the inflow to spot ETFs has remained consistently positive.
On March 30, Strategy CEO Michael Saylor highlighted this sentiment by sharing a Bitcoin chart, referring to the need for more accumulation. MicroStrategy’s continued buy strategy emphasizes the belief in Bitcoin’s long-term value despite short-term fluctuations.
Strategy Bitcoin purchases. Source: X / Michael Saylor
Data from CryptoQuant indicates that inflows to accumulation addresses are rising, suggesting continued interest among investors. However, as we navigate this complex market landscape, it is crucial for investors to conduct their own research and approach investment decisions with caution.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
