In a recent livestream broadcast on X, independent market technician Kevin, known online as @Kev_Capital_TA, presented a compelling argument that cryptocurrency markets are poised to enter what he terms “the real bull run.” He pointed to a combination of key technical signals, macroeconomic indicators, and inter-market correlations that he believes have been largely overlooked by traders.
The Real Bull Run Starts Here
Kevin emphasized the importance of Tether dominance (USDT.D)—the proportion of the market capitalization held in the dollar-pegged stablecoin. During his analysis, he shared two long-term logarithmic USDT.D charts that depicted an initial sharp decline, followed by what he described as a “rising channel slash bear flag.” He noted that both the current situation and predictive patterns from 2024 suggest a measured-move target of 3.70 percent for Tether dominance, asserting that any significant rally in risk assets hinges on reaching this level. “The two key words that are going to be the most important words over the next couple of weeks are follow through,” he highlighted.
Additionally, Kevin overlaid a macro descending triangle on a separate two-week USDT.D chart dating back to March 2020. He remarked that each time the two-week Stochastic RSI crossed downward, the dominance metric saw a sharp decline, corresponding with periods of strength in both Bitcoin and altcoins. The most recent downward cross similarly targets 3.70 percent. Should this support level falter, Kevin warned, it could trigger a deeper decline towards a “two-percent handle,” marking what he termed a “peak bull market” phase—although he cautioned against making long-term speculative predictions.
Expanding the technical discussion, Kevin introduced the Bitcoin hash-ribbon indicator, which tracks miner capitulation and recovery cycles. Historically, he noted, weekly “buy” signals have preceded sizeable price movements of 40 to 100 percent within nine weeks, boasting a “100 percent hit rate” over eight years of back-testing.
Kevin linked the on-chain data to larger macro conditions, highlighting the real-time inflation measure “Truthflation,” currently at a reading of 1.66 percent—beneath the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent—coupled with falling import prices. He observed that these factors increase the likelihood of a shift toward easier monetary policy. “If Truthflation stays below 2 percent, you’re going to get the easing you want,” he stated. He predicted that markets would begin pricing in an end to quantitative tightening even before any official announcements. “Retail traders are becoming more educated than they’ve ever been.… The market will sniff out rate cuts coming,” he asserted.
Kevin also discussed altcoin capital rotation as a cornerstone of his bullish thesis. He noted that Ethereum’s market-share chart had been basing at 2019-2020 lows, with positive momentum indicators like the monthly MACD and Stochastic RSI turning upward. He mentioned early reallocations into Ethereum-related projects such as Chainlink and Uniswap, which have reportedly risen 60 percent from their accumulation zones, framing these moves as the early stages of a broader market rally. However, he cautioned attendees not to wait for central-bank affirmations, stating emphatically, “Don’t be the person sitting on the sidelines waiting for Powell to come out saying QT is over.”
Regarding Bitcoin, Kevin acknowledged significant resistance that the cryptocurrency must overcome. He outlined that Bitcoin must surpass its March record and navigate through the $112,000–$116,000 range, ultimately reaching $120,000 to open up a pathway toward $140,000–$150,000. He also highlighted the importance of the “total three” index—the market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum—requiring a daily close above $877 billion, along with breaking past a resistance band that has capped rallies multiple times since February. Only after these levels are breached would a new all-time high for the broader altcoin market seem achievable.
Despite his optimistic analysis, Kevin reiterated that conviction must be tempered with confirmation. “We need to see real deal price action,” he said. He noted that the daily RSI for Bitcoin has not entered the 90-plus “euphoria” zone since 2017, labeling post-March price action as “down-trending crappy price action.” He insisted that any proclamation of a peak in the market cycle must await definitive follow-through in price movement.
In closing, Kevin emphasized the urgency of the current market situation. With the halving event now behind us and the traditional four-year cycle seemingly entering its final phase, he noted, “You’ve got five to six months of what should be elite-level price action.” According to him, the conclusion of the textbook cycle will rely on the interplay between Federal Reserve actions and the cryptocurrency market’s ability to forecast those changes.
Kevin’s strategy is clear: monitor USDT dominance for a potential breakdown to 3.70 percent, keep an eye out for successive hash-ribbon buy signals, and demand substantial momentum above the established technical barriers. If these conditions are fulfilled, the rally anticipated by many traders may turn out to be just the precursor to “the real bull run.”
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $111,250.
