Long‑term holders of Bitcoin may need to see a fresh high around $140,000 before they can enjoy the same level of profits they experienced earlier in this cycle.
According to CryptoQuant, this price point aligns with past peaks in realized gains for those who have held their coins without selling for at least six months.
‘Market Magnet’ Theory
CryptoQuant used the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio to assess how deeply in profit holders currently are. Reports indicate that the average realized profit for long‑term holders is approximately 220%.
While this figure seems robust, it’s essential to note that in March and December of 2024, holders were reportedly enjoying gains of about 300% and 350%, respectively. The disparity between today’s 220% and these earlier highs represents what Darkfost, a contributor at CryptoQuant, refers to as a form of “market magnet.” There is a growing sentiment that a Bitcoin price of $140,000 is necessary for unrealized profits to revert to the high levels observed in this cycle.
Profit‑Taking Trends
Recent trends indicate that long‑term investors have been actively selling as Bitcoin approaches new highs. Data shows that this group has been largely responsible for the selling pressure observed in recent weeks.
The average cost basis for these holders — the realized price — is approximately $33,800. This means anyone who acquired Bitcoin more than six months ago would require it to reach $33,800, just to break even.
To match the profit levels of March and December 2024, Bitcoin must climb to $140,000. This scenario creates a dynamic where some traders are opting to lock in gains early, while others are holding out for potentially higher returns.
Despite the selling trends, a significant majority of Bitcoin investors remain in the green, with unrealized profits totaling an impressive $2.5 trillion. This figure illustrates the overall strength behind the recent market rally.
Nevertheless, there is a prevailing belief among many investors that fresh buying interest can absorb the waves of profit-taking occurring in the market. The current phase appears to be a temporary pause.
Both buyers and sellers are evaluating their positions, raising the pertinent question of whether demand will escalate sufficiently to drive Bitcoin to that magnet-level price.
Cycle Outlook And Next Steps
Analysts suggest that Bitcoin is positioned for a post‑breakout retest after a multi‑week downtrend that commenced in mid‑May.
Moreover, they speculate that the bullish trend might only have a few months left before a final surge and subsequent change in market behavior.
If this scenario unfolds as anticipated, that ultimate push could be the pivotal moment when Bitcoin approaches or even reaches $140,000. Historically, after such peaks, the market tends to experience a rapid decrease before stabilizing.
Featured image from Imagen, chart from TradingView
