On May 3, analysts at BTC financial services firm Swan remarked that “this may be the most bullish setup for Bitcoin since 2020.” The statement marks a significant moment in the cryptocurrency market, highlighting key indicators that suggest a potentially robust future for Bitcoin.
One of the standout observations from the analysts is the recent performance of gold, traditionally seen as a safe haven asset. Gold has surged by 30% since the start of the year, achieving an all-time high of over $3,400 per ounce on April 22. However, as gold takes a breather—down approximately 3% this week—Bitcoin has risen by about 4%. Swan analysts assert, “Every time BTC starts catching up like this, it’s the start of something bigger,” referencing past experiences where Bitcoin’s upward momentum followed similar patterns.
This may be the most bullish setup for Bitcoin since 2020.
Gold is taking a breather.
Liquidity is rising.
And Bitcoin is quietly positioning itself for something big.
Here’s why all the signals are flashing green pic.twitter.com/95dWb3XUQN— Swan (@Swan) May 2, 2025
Liquidity Rising
A key signal indicating Bitcoin’s bullish potential is the rise in global liquidity, particularly through the M2 money supply, which is increasing for the first time since 2021. According to the St. Louis Fed, the M2 money supply has risen by 4% over the past twelve months. This expansion in money supply has historically fueled significant Bitcoin bull markets, with Swan analysts noting, “Every major Bitcoin bull market has followed this pattern: expanding money supply, softening financial conditions, waning trust in fiat. This is fuel, and Bitcoin is built to absorb it.”
Additionally, recent volatility levels have surged to those seen during March 2020. While the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has calmed, uncertainty persists in the market. Swan comments that, “Bitcoin thrives in chaos because it offers certainty, finality, and neutrality when everything else breaks down.”
Economist Timothy Peterson has also scrutinized the VIX, noting its significant drop from 55 to 25 over the past 50 trading days. With a VIX score below 18 indicating a favorable environment for risk assets like Bitcoin, Peterson predicts potential BTC price adjustments to $135,000, contingent on the VIX remaining low.
The analysis doesn’t stop there; the MVRV ratio, calculated by dividing market value by realized value, has just bounced off 1.74, which historically signals the onset of major Bitcoin bull markets. Furthermore, with sellers appearing exhausted between $90,000 and $100,000, Bitcoin is breaking above the cost basis as weaker hands exit the market. Swan asserts, “This is the structure historically seen when Bitcoin is about to go vertical.”
Interest Rate Impact
Another critical element is the anticipated impact of interest rates on Bitcoin prices. Peterson has estimated that a decline of 25 basis points in interest rates translates to a 10% increase in Bitcoin’s price. Current trends suggest a 75 basis point decline within the next month or two, which could lead Bitcoin to approach the $130,000 mark.
Recently, Bitcoin has surged over 15% in the past month, nearing $98,000—its highest close since February 21. The combination of rising liquidity, favorable market conditions, and declining interest rates creates an environment ripe for significant Bitcoin appreciation.
The insights and indicators presented by Swan and Timothy Peterson paint a picture of a bullish Bitcoin setup, suggesting that investors may want to watch this space closely as signals continue to flash in favor of cryptocurrency markets.
The original report, detailing five primary signals for this optimistic outlook, can be found on CryptoPotato.
