According to crypto analyst VisionPulsed, Dogecoin could see its first significant upward movement around September 13. He suggests that the current downturn aligns with a post-halving pattern where markets tend to remain weak for about 510–511 days following Bitcoin’s supply reduction before embarking on a final rally. In a video released on September 1, VisionPulsed stated, “I would argue starting around September 13th, the selling may subside… 511 days post halving last cycle, we were already going back up. 511 days post halving the cycle before that we were already going back up.”
Could Dogecoin’s Pain End by September 13?
The analyst describes the current weakness as part of a lengthy cycle marked by extended periods of stagnation rather than deep corrections. “Unfortunately, we’re still going down,” he remarks, characterizing this cycle as having longer corrections. He refers to historical periods of weakness in September—specifically September 2–26 in 2021 and a shorter dip in November 2017—as indicators that may coincide with the post-halving trends he observes.
VisionPulsed’s predictions find support in the liquidity gauge M2, which he believes continues to correlate with crypto market trends despite shifts in asset leadership. “Some critics say the M2 is no longer effective. I disagree,” he asserts. He notes that the M2 gauge closely tracked Solana’s performance in 2023, subsequently correlating with Bitcoin and more recently reflecting inflows into Ethereum and BNB while Bitcoin’s dominance wanes. He acknowledges, “I’m not going to pretend to know exactly where the liquidity will flow next… I don’t have that insight.”
The rotation of market leadership helps to explain why certain large-cap tokens may lag behind. According to VisionPulsed, “Perhaps our coins are not gaining traction due to the liquidity because they are inferior assets.” He warns that assets that have already reached cycle highs may experience limited upward potential, extending similar reasoning to Bitcoin, expressing skepticism about its chances of reaching $200,000. “Maybe it’s $140,000. Maybe it’s $130,000. It’s not going to $200,000,” he claims, adding that XRP’s market structure reveals prior all-time highs while currently lacking traction from recent liquidity movements.
In the case of Dogecoin, VisionPulsed emphasizes that it currently lags behind in the market-cap rankings and has yet to benefit from the recent liquidity rotation that first aided Bitcoin, then Ethereum, and BNB, with only minor spillover observed in Solana. He cautions that a broader altcoin rally is dependent on overall risk appetite in traditional markets, highlighting the Russell 2000’s struggle to reach new highs.
“Until we see that present, I wouldn’t expect an alt season to materialize,” he notes, outlining a lag of approximately 18 days, then 123 days, then 190 days between preceding halvings and a breakout in small-cap equities. Compared to over 480 days without such a breakout in the current cycle, he argues, “Yes, this is the worst market cycle to date, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen. It just might be taking longer than we anticipated.”
While VisionPulsed identifies September 13 as a potential turnaround point, he also warns that the liquidity conditions that follow could be tumultuous. He highlights a timeframe from approximately September 14 to October 24 where his M2 gauge tends to behave unpredictably, though prior instances have still supported a final push to all-time highs, despite underlying measures wavering.
“Will we rise to a peak, or will we trend bearish indefinitely? We’re about to find out together,” he concludes, reiterating that the current state is still bearish, and his outlook is probabilistic rather than definitive. At press time, Dogecoin (DOGE) was trading at $0.21.
