In the latest installment of the “Bitcoin Policy Hour,” a weekly podcast produced by the nonprofit Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI), leading members of the organization discussed how a single policy decision by the United States government might catapult the price of Bitcoin to extraordinary new highs.
According to Executive Director Matthew Pines, the world’s monetary framework has remained largely unchanged since 1973, when the global financial system pivoted away from a full gold standard. Pines emphasized that despite numerous crises and evolutions, the fundamental structure of the monetary system has stood the test of time. However, as nations like China gain more prominence in various domains, including financial, military, and industrial sectors, the stability of the long-established dollar-based system faces unprecedented challenges.
Head of Policy Zach Shapiro added that concerns about losing trust in the U.S. dollar and its reserve asset, the U.S. Treasury security, have led to increasing discussions around alternatives. He pointed out that since the United States froze Russia’s Treasury reserves last year, central banks worldwide have started to perceive U.S. debts as less of a neutral reserve. This shift might create an opportunity for Bitcoin to either supplement or replace gold’s traditional role, especially if a significant move by the Trump administration to purchase Bitcoin comes to fruition.
Shapiro discussed the potential policy idea of “marking gold to market,” a process that would involve formally revaluing America’s statutory gold price—currently fixed by law at approximately $42 per ounce, despite gold trading above $3,200. He suggested that this change could produce a large surplus in the Treasury’s books, potentially allowing for substantial investments in Bitcoin. He questioned the timeliness and rationale for such a move, prompting deeper reflection on the implications of U.S. policy direction.
Pines underlined the international ramifications of these discussions, indicating that the dynamics surrounding gold certificates play a crucial role in broader geopolitical tensions, particularly amid trade frictions and technological restrictions between the U.S. and China. He noted, “As great powers engage in strategic competition, we are likely to see shifts across various domains: tariffs, export controls, currency systems, and, indeed, monetary assets such as gold and Bitcoin.”
A recent White House executive order issued in March formalized the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, signaling a significant policy shift by instructing agencies to conduct a Bitcoin audit, with findings expected for the President’s Working Group on digital assets. Pines remarked that this directive underscores Bitcoin’s characterization as “digital gold” and highlights its strategic importance for the nation.
Shapiro confirmed that the White House mandated each agency to identify its digital assets held from forfeiture or other means within a month. However, this report is directed to the Treasury Secretary and the President’s Working Group, rather than being publicly disclosed.
While the White House order encouraged budget-neutral methods for acquiring new Bitcoin, there has yet to be a clear outline from any single agency on the execution. Both Pines and Shapiro hinted that internal debates and ambiguity surrounding the meaning of “budget neutral” may complicate the implementation process. For instance, tariffs could raise funds for Bitcoin acquisition without impacting taxpayer expenses, while selling existing assets on the government’s balance sheet is another viable approach.
Should the Trump administration move forward with a substantial Bitcoin purchase, the consequent price implications could be enormous. Shapiro posited, “If the United States announces that we are buying a million Bitcoin, that’s just a global seismic shock. I think the Bitcoin price would soar, possibly reaching levels like a million dollars per Bitcoin very swiftly.”
However, the geopolitical effects could be even more significant. Shapiro elaborated, stating, “We must consider the second-order effects of Bitcoin’s rapid monetization. The reactions of other nation-states will be crucial. I suspect that a stronger and faster adoption of Bitcoin could adversely affect the long-term outlook for gold.”
As of recent reports, Bitcoin is trading at $83,594.
