After a very favorable resolution to a four-year lawsuit against the SEC and the prospect of an XRP ETF in the United States, Ripple appears to be on a remarkable path forward. Despite these advancements, however, the price of XRP has done little to reflect this progress, remaining nearly 30% below its all-time high and showing no significant movement in recent weeks. What is behind this paradox?
Everything Going in Ripple’s Favor
Let us take a step back to early March 2024. The cryptocurrency landscape had improved considerably, with Bitcoin ETFs recently launched in the U.S., the devastating bear market of 2022 firmly in the rearview, and Bitcoin setting a new all-time high. Yet, for certain altcoins like XRP, the outlook was not as bright.
The company backing XRP continued its protracted legal battle against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. This lawsuit, initiated in December 2020, led to multiple partner departures and exchanges delisting XRP from their trading platforms. While the company, led by CEO Brad Garlinghouse, achieved several judicial victories, the SEC’s hostility toward cryptocurrencies persisted, keeping XRP’s price stagnant at around $0.60 after multiple unsuccessful breakout attempts.
If someone had predicted a year ago that by now we’d have a pro-crypto president, a more approachable SEC leadership, and a favorable outcome in the Ripple lawsuit, it would likely have seemed far-fetched. Yet here we are; the SEC has adopted a more lenient stance, Ripple’s legal battle has reached a resolution favorable to Ripple, and discussions of an IPO and potential XRP ETF in the U.S. are gaining traction.
Amid these developments, XRP was even mentioned by the current president as a proposed asset for the nation’s strategic crypto reserve. So why hasn’t there been a significant rise in the price of XRP?
Where’s the Surge?
The answer may lie in the pivotal events that occurred between November 2024 and January 2025. During that period, XRP experienced a tremendous surge in value from approximately $0.60 ahead of the U.S. elections to a peak of $3.40 in January, nearly matching its previous high from 2018. This rally was likely fueled by speculation and hope, encapsulated in the notion of ‘buy the rumor.’ The rise in XRP’s value coincided with the elections, the resignation announcement of SEC Chair Gary Gensler , and the anticipation surrounding the new presidential inauguration.
However, once the regulatory changes became reality, and the SEC lawsuit closed, XRP did not maintain the momentum it had garnered during the speculative rally. While there were fluctuations in value, they were fleeting.
The pressing question is whether XRP’s price will respond positively to the rumors of an XRP ETF in the U.S., or if those potential developments have already been factored into the current pricing. If the recent favorable progress for Ripple was not sufficient to propel XRP past its historical highs, the market is left to ponder what could possibly trigger such an ascent.
