A new research paper by Google Quantum AI researcher Craig Gidney reveals a significant reduction in the quantum resources required for breaking RSA encryption, estimating that it may need only 20 times fewer resources than previously believed.
While the study does not directly reference Bitcoin (BTC) or other cryptocurrencies, it targets the encryption methods that underpin the security of crypto wallets and transactions.
RSA, a widely adopted public-key encryption algorithm, encrypts and decrypts data through a dual-key mechanism: a public key for encryption and a private key for decryption.
Although Bitcoin does not utilize RSA, it employs elliptic curve cryptography (ECC). However, like RSA, ECC is vulnerable to quantum attacks, particularly those executed via Shor’s algorithm, designed to solve mathematical problems that form the foundation of public key cryptography.
ECC operates by harnessing mathematical curves for locking and unlocking digital data, utilizing calculations that are one-directional. This approach allows for using relatively smaller keys that offer security comparable to larger ones.
Despite the fact that 256-bit ECC keys deliver substantial security compared to 2048-bit RSA keys, the nature of quantum threats expands on a non-linear scale. Research such as Gidney’s significantly alters the timeline in which these attacks become realizable.
According to Gidney’s estimates, a quantum computer equipped with fewer than one million noisy qubits could factor a 2048-bit RSA integer in less than a week. This marks a stark contrast to his earlier prediction in 2019, which posited that this achievement would necessitate 20 million qubits and could be accomplished in eight hours.
It is crucial to note that such a quantum computer does not currently exist; the most advanced quantum processor from IBM, Condor, has achieved just over 1,100 qubits, while Google’s Sycamore comprises 53 qubits.
Quantum computing capitalizes on the principles of quantum mechanics, utilizing quantum bits or qubits instead of the traditional binary bits.
Qubits are unique in that they can represent both 0 and 1 simultaneously, owing to quantum phenomena such as superposition and entanglement. This property enables quantum computers to execute multiple calculations concurrently, potentially addressing problems considered unsolvable for classical computers.
“This represents a 20-fold decrease in qubit requirements from our earlier estimates,” Gidney stated in a recent post.
Research initiatives like Project 11 are probing the feasibility of today’s quantum hardware against even diluted versions of Bitcoin’s encryption. Earlier this year, the group initiated a public bounty of 1 BTC (approximately $85,000) for anyone who can breach minimal ECC key sizes — between 1 and 25 bits — using a quantum computer.
The objective of this endeavor is not to dismantle Bitcoin’s security today, but to establish the proximity of current systems to potential breaches.
