Recent forecasts indicate a 70% likelihood that the ongoing trade conflict between Canada and the United States may reach a resolution by May. This outlook is supported by a Polymarket contract concerning the issue, alongside insights from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who recently suggested that U.S. President Donald Trump is open to negotiations.
On the recent Tuesday morning, Canada and Mexico found themselves facing a sharp 25% tariff on all products entering the U.S. President Trump reasons this measure as a necessary response to their perceived inadequacies in addressing fentanyl trafficking and illegal immigration, which he deemed national security threats.
However, as the day progressed, Secretary Lutnick mentioned a potential opportunity for negotiation, which corresponded with a notable 20% increase in the odds on Polymarket concerning the resolution of the trade war.
“I think [Trump is] going to work something out with them,” Lutnick stated. “It’s not going to be a pause, none of that pause stuff, but I think he’s going to figure out: you do more, and I’ll meet you in the middle someway and we’re going to probably announce that tomorrow.”
Lutnick’s remarks not only hinted at diplomatic progress but appeared to stabilize cryptocurrency markets during what was dubbed ‘Turnaround Tuesday.’ Bitcoin (BTC) saw an uptick of 1.5%, trading comfortably above the $87,000 mark as reported by CoinDesk Indices data.
Furthermore, the CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a composite index measuring the performance of the world’s leading digital assets, experienced a 2% increase following Lutnick’s optimistic statements.
As the situation progresses, it remains crucial to monitor developments closely, as a resolution to the trade war could have far-reaching implications not just for North American economics but also for the global market landscape.
