This is a daily technical analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.
For the past 12 weeks, gold (XAU) has outperformed bitcoin (BTC) in a race to draw bids, but this trend may be on the verge of reversing, according to technical charts.
This year, gold has surged 22% due to haven bids and arbitrage plays involving traders moving physical gold from overseas destinations to the U.S. to take advantage of premiums on Comex.
In contrast, bitcoin has experienced a decline of over 8%. This has resulted in a more than 25% slide in the bitcoin-gold ratio, which compares the per unit USD price of bitcoin to the per ounce USD price of gold.
However, the downtrend represented by trendlines drawn from Jan. 20 and March 3 highs has been invalidated this week. The ratio topped the trendline over the weekend in a bullish breakout, suggesting that while bitcoin may not outperform gold just yet, it could catch up with the rally in the yellow metal.
The analysis aligns with insights from Theya Research’s Joe Consorti, who indicates that bitcoin typically lags gold by 100 to 150 days.
The trendline breakout is further supported by a positive flip in the MACD histogram, which signals a bullish shift in momentum. Additionally, the bullish crossover of the 5- and 10-day simple moving averages (SMA), visible in the lower pane, corroborates this analysis.
XMR’s Golden Cross
The outlook for privacy-focused Monero (XMR) appears positive following a sharp recovery from $165 to over $200 over the past week, resulting in a “long-tailed” candle on the weekly chart—an indicator of dip demand.
The token has successfully broken out of a prolonged consolidation pattern, with the 50-week SMA now above the 200-week SMA, which confirms a golden crossover. This crossover suggests a long-term bullish shift in momentum.
Immediate resistance is observed at $242, which is the February high, followed by $289, the April 2022 high. Support levels are expected at $200 and last week’s low of $165.
