Renowned crypto analyst Bob Loukas has recently made headlines by reducing his exposure to Bitcoin, a move that has sparked discussions within the cryptocurrency community. Loukas remains optimistic about the ongoing bull cycle; however, he has raised alarm bells regarding the possibility that Bitcoin may have already hit its peak for this four-year cycle. In an update published on April 8th, Loukas elaborated on his decision to sell one-third of his model portfolio at $79,500, referencing both technical deterioration and a deteriorating macroeconomic landscape.
“I still think we have the ability to push later in the year or even early next year to a high in the four-year cycle,” Loukas stated. However, he noted that recent price trends and structural breakdowns in the charts necessitated a more guarded approach. “I’m not calling for this to be the top in the cycle,” he clarified. “I’m saying that the probability of it being a top has increased… from that low-risk possibility to something that is maybe more like a third—you know, a 33% chance.”
Bitcoin Bull In Doubt
Loukas’s recent portfolio shift, which has reduced his Bitcoin allocation to 27 BTC with the remainder held in cash, is not indicative of an imminent market collapse but rather a precaution against rising downside risks. He emphasized that this decision is not a reactionary move but part of a long-term strategy based on the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price history. In his February video, Loukas warned that a failure to maintain support in the next weekly cycle could lead to deeper issues. “In the third year of a bull market, you don’t want to see significant lows like those we experienced in February being broken. It’s a rare occurrence,” he stated.
Loukas highlighted multiple trendline violations and critical support breaks on both weekly and monthly charts. While he acknowledged that technical indicators alone are not reliable predictors of cycle tops, he believes these developments lend credence to the theory that the market may be entering the declining phase of the four-year cycle. “We are now… 29 months into the cycle,” he pointed out, emphasizing the need for serious consideration of the current market environment.
Although Loukas maintains a bullish long-term outlook—citing strong price performance, ETF inflows, and increasing institutional adoption—he cautioned that macroeconomic headwinds could exacerbate near-term volatility. “We are facing significant macro issues with tariffs, trade disputes, and overall economic conditions,” Loukas remarked. “What we are witnessing in global trade could lead to a full-blown recession, a disruption we haven’t seen in decades.”
In light of these conditions, Loukas remains skeptical of the notion that Bitcoin can completely decouple from risk assets. “The introduction of ETFs, coupled with increased institutional involvement in Bitcoin, makes a complete decoupling seem unrealistic,” he stated. He outlined a possible bearish scenario wherein Bitcoin could retreat toward the $52,000 mark—approximately a 50% correction from its January highs. While this is not a forecast, Loukas indicated that such a decline might provide a strong re-entry opportunity. “If Bitcoin approaches the $54,000 level over the next month or so, I would consider a 50% retracement as a reason to redeploy some risk,” he said.
Furthermore, any substantial upward movement followed by a lower low could, in Loukas’s view, signify a definitive four-year cycle top. “A notable rally followed by a decline would be like a final nail in the coffin for this cycle,” he reasoned.
Nevertheless, Loukas has not dismissed the potential for higher highs later this year. He even speculated about an unconventional “super right-translated cycle,” in which Bitcoin could peak significantly beyond the typical month-35 window—perhaps around months 41 or 42—followed by a brief correction and continued bullish momentum into the next four-year cycle. This scenario would reflect a more complex pattern reminiscent of previous cycles in 2013 and 2021.
Currently, Loukas’s model portfolio remains two-thirds invested in Bitcoin, and he reiterated his preference for a bullish outcome—even if it means reducing exposure. “I’d much prefer to ride two-thirds of a position up to $150K, $200K, or beyond, than to see Bitcoin fall back down to $48K or lower,” he emphasized.
In conclusion, Loukas framed his recent portfolio adjustments not as an indication of bearish capitulation but rather as an exercise in prudent risk management. “As an allocator of risk and capital, it becomes essential to reassess your strategy as you delve deeper into the cycle and as market conditions evolve,” he stated.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $77,743.
