By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
As March approaches its end, it’s clear that the first quarter of 2025 has been far from encouraging for the cryptocurrency market. The industry has experienced a notable dip in price action, overshadowing any positive narratives that might have emerged amidst the turmoil.
Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a 10% decrease, marking the worst first-quarter performance since 2020, while ether (ETH) reported its weakest first quarter since it was introduced. Fortunately, it appears Bitcoin has managed to maintain some steadiness throughout March.
During this time, the markets reflect the latter stages of former President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office, a period typically characterized by uncertainty and volatility. Historical trends suggest that this uncertainty may linger at least until the end of April.
As the end of the quarter draws near, concerns about negative liquidity and position management could lead to increased market volatility. This forecast comes from the London Crypto Club, which is known for its trading insights.
Despite the current short-term weaknesses, experts retain a bullish outlook as we enter the second quarter. They note that a slightly dovish stance from the Federal Reserve at its recent meeting and an easing U.S. dollar, combined with increased fiscal expenditure in the European Union and a slowing yet stable U.S. economy, could provide a solid foundation for a rebound in the coming months.
This week, Bitcoin took another dip following the lack of a definitive announcement from Trump regarding policies on a bitcoin strategic reserve or a tax-free capital gains framework for cryptocurrencies.
“Market players were anticipating more concrete policy commitments,” stated Blockhead Research Network (BRN). “Instead, we heard general support for the crypto industry with an emphasis on stablecoins’ role in bolstering the U.S. dollar’s position globally. While this might be favorable in the long term, the absence of decisive actions acts as a bearish signal in the short term.”
BRN predicts challenges for digital assets to maintain breakouts, with notable accumulation occurring at lower price levels, especially for altcoins.
“In light of the recent downturns, we suggest remaining heavily invested as the market may react quickly to forthcoming positive developments. Support levels are not far from current prices,” advised BRN in correspondence with CoinDesk. Investors are encouraged to remain vigilant!
What to Watch
Crypto Events:
March 21, 1:00 p.m.: The SEC’s Crypto Task Force will convene a roundtable, open to the public, to define what constitutes a security.
March 24 (before market opens): Bitcoin miner CleanSpark (CLSK) is set to join the S&P SmallCap 600 index.
March 24, 11:00 a.m.: The Bugis network upgrade will go live on Enjin Matrixchain mainnet.
March 25: The Mimir upgrade is set to be deployed on the Chromia (CHR) mainnet.
March 26, 3:37 a.m.: Ethereum’s Hoodi testnet will activate the Pascal hard fork network upgrade at epoch 2048.
Macro Events:
March 23, 8:30 p.m.: S&P Global will release the Flash Japan March producer price index (PPI) data.
March 24, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global will publish the Flash U.S. March producer price index (PPI) data.
Token Events
Governance Votes & Calls:
Aave DAO is considering the activation of Aave Umbrella.
Sky DAO is voting on an executive proposal with multiple initiatives.
Compound DAO is discussing the implementation of COMP Staker, a staking mechanism to enhance governance.
Market Movements
BTC is down 0.73%, currently priced at $83,935.26, with a 24-hour change of -1.43%.
ETH is down 1.19% at $1,960.00, reflecting a -1.18% change over the last 24 hours.
The CoinDesk 20 index is down 1.29% at 2,648.64.
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 61.52 (0.16% change).
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 808 EH/s.
BTC is priced at approximately 27.4 oz of gold.
Technical Analysis
The recent movements in the XRP/ETH daily chart show a bearish divergence with the MACD histogram, indicating a potential underperformance from XRP compared to ether.
Conclusion
As the cryptocurrency market navigates through a period of uncertainty, maintaining a watchful eye on upcoming events and trends will be crucial for investors. The combination of historical volatility patterns and shifting liquidity dynamics may present both challenges and opportunities as we approach the second quarter.
