Navigating Market Volatility: Cryptocurrency Trends Amidst Trade Concerns

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Cryptocurrency markets faced a downturn on Friday, as renewed concerns regarding U.S. trade policy unsettled traditional markets, overshadowing news that otherwise might have fueled optimism within the industry.

The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index, which measures the broader crypto market, decreased by 4.4% to 3,129 in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin (BTC), while slipping 2.8% to approximately $105,300, has remarkably maintained a position above $100,000 for over 20 consecutive days, reflecting persistent investor interest.

This sell-off was prompted by a U.S. appeals court reinstating trade tariffs that had been previously deemed illegal by a lower court. This reversal has reignited fears of a prolonged trade conflict. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent commented in an interview that negotiations with China were “a bit stalled,” further compounding the uncertainty.

“When it comes to global trade right now, the only certainty is uncertainty,” stated Darren Nathan, Head of Equity Research at Hargreaves Lansdown, in an emailed statement. Adding to this macroeconomic turmoil, reports emerged that former President Trump urged Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates during a recent in-person meeting.

In this context of uncertainty, Bitcoin’s allure has remained robust. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has reached record-low volatility levels, attracting billions from investors. Total net flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have surged to $5.85 billion this month, up from $2.97 billion in April, according to SoSoVale data.

Adding to the market’s momentum, Spanish banking giant Santander is reportedly considering offering retail clients access to cryptocurrencies, while Panama is contemplating allowing ships to pay transit fees in Bitcoin.

The market now turns its attention towards the core PCE inflation data, a critical metric for Federal Reserve policy. Should the readings indicate rising inflation, expectations for rate cuts could diminish, exerting further pressure on risk assets.

“Any sign of worsening inflationary pressure is likely to weigh on expectations for further interest cuts by the Fed this year, raising concerns given the economic inertia building up,” Hargreaves Lansdown’s Head of Equity Research noted. However, it’s crucial to interpret these numbers carefully, considering that their full impact from tariffs has yet to be felt.

For now, Bitcoin’s continued ability to hold above the pivotal $100,000 mark serves as an essential psychological indicator amid prevailing uncertainties. Investors are urged to stay alert as market conditions evolve.

What to Watch

  • Crypto
  • Macro
    • May 30, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases Q1 GDP data.
    • May 30, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases April unemployment rate data.
    • May 30, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases Q1 GDP data.
    • May 30, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases April consumer income and expenditure data.
    • May 30, 10 a.m.: The University of Michigan releases (final) May U.S. consumer sentiment data.
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • None in the near future.

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
  • Unlocks
    • May 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.89% of its circulating supply worth $21.68 million.
    • June 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 1.32% of its circulating supply worth $150.46 million.
    • June 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 5.34% of its circulating supply worth $10.14 million.
    • June 12: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.7% of its circulating supply worth $14.18 million.
    • June 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply worth $57.11 million.
  • Token Launches
    • June 1: Rewards for staking ERC-20 OM on MANTRA Finance end.
    • June 16: Advised deadline to unstake stMATIC as part of Lido on Polygon’s sunsetting process ends.
    • June 26: Coinbase to delist Helium Mobile (MOBILE), Render (RNDR), Ribbon Finance (RBN), & Synapse (SYN)

Conferences

Market Movements

  • BTC is down 0.47% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $105,705.74 (24hrs: -3.08%)
  • ETH is down 1.01% at $2,618.44 (24hrs: -4.43%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is down 1.85% at 3,133.82 (24hrs: -4.59%)
  • DXY is up 0.31% at 99.58
  • Gold is down 0.74% at $3,296.9 /oz
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