The cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing a phase of uncertainty, as global tensions surrounding ongoing import tariff negotiations weigh heavily on investor sentiment across both traditional and digital markets. According to Aurelie Barthere, a principal research analyst at Nansen, there is a promising 70% probability that cryptocurrency valuations may reach a local bottom before June.
On April 2, US President Donald Trump is anticipated to outline his reciprocal import tariffs, a strategic move aimed at addressing a staggering trade deficit projected at $1.2 trillion. The initial announcement of these tariffs has already affected global markets, triggering apprehensions among investors.
Barthere highlights, “Nansen data estimates a 70% probability that crypto prices will bottom between now and June, with BTC and ETH currently trading 15% and 22% below their year-to-date highs, respectively. These upcoming discussions will serve as crucial market indicators.” This suggests that as negotiations progress, there is potential for revitalizing the cryptocurrency market.
Furthermore, both traditional equity indexes and BTC have struggled to maintain significant upward momentum, failing to breach their 200-day moving averages. Nansen’s research indicates that the prevailing fragile market psychology necessitates favorable news, particularly regarding US economic growth and tariff developments.
In light of this market environment, investors find themselves in a “wait-and-see mode,” largely hesitant to commit to substantial positions. Stella Zlatareva, a dispatch editor at the digital asset investment platform Nexo, points out the Crypto Fear & Greed Index’s persistent position above the “extreme fear” benchmark. Despite this, there appears to be a sliver of improvement as Bitcoin consolidates within a range of $82,000 to $85,000.
Zlatareva asserts, “Bitcoin is navigating this zone with key support at $82,000 and potential upside movements toward $86,500 and $90,000 if broader sentiment stabilizes.” Meanwhile, traders are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s performance, especially for a breakout above the $84,500 mark as a pivotal signal for potential upward momentum amid the prevailing uncertainty surrounding tariffs.
As we delve deeper into 2025, the landscape remains complex; however, insights from analysts suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook, contingent upon forthcoming negotiations and market responses.
