Bitcoin’s price has seen a significant drop of over 22% from its peak of more than $109,000 recorded on January 20, coinciding with the inauguration of former US President Donald Trump. This sharp decline has raised alarm bells among investors, particularly as various technical indicators suggest a bearish trend.
The recent downturn has coincided with a slowdown in new liquidity inflows, prompting speculation that we may be nearing the end of the current bull cycle.
Liquidity Slowdown and Whale Sell-Offs
In a notable commentary, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju emphasized the bearish sentiment by stating that Bitcoin’s bull cycle has come to an end. He anticipates that prices may experience a sideways or bearish trend over the next 6 to 12 months as the market processes recent gains.
A critical aspect of his analysis revolves around the actions of “new whales”—large investors who have recently acquired substantial amounts of Bitcoin but are now beginning to sell at diminished prices. This trend, combined with a decrease in demand, significantly contributes to the prevailing market uncertainty.
#Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action. pic.twitter.com/f80bnNhjy4
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) March 17, 2025
Supporting his perspective, Ju employed Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on various on-chain metrics including the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL). His analysis indicated crucial turning points in Bitcoin’s long-term trend via a 365-day moving average.
The findings suggest that Bitcoin’s one-year moving average has recently entered a downward phase, which historically coincides with prolonged bear markets. If past patterns are any indication, BTC may remain in a corrective phase for several months to come.
Weakening Demand for Bitcoin
Another troubling sign is the potential weakening of Bitcoin demand. In 2024, there were noticeable demand peaks in March and December, an atypical pattern that hinted at increased short-term interest. However, following the March peak, demand momentum experienced a marked decline, aligning with trends observed between August 2017 and December 2018.
Historically, such demand patterns have often preceded price fluctuations followed by a gradual downtrend. Despite the evolution of market size, volume, liquidity, and investor interest, the overall trend points toward declining demand.
The post Bitcoin (BTC) Bull Cycle May Be Over: CryptoQuant CEO Warns appeared first on CryptoPotato.
