Analysts are buzzing about the recent surge in Monero (XMR), with some suggesting that the cryptocurrency may repeat its impressive cycle-high from 2021 following a notable jump in price. However, the circumstances surrounding this rally have raised eyebrows, particularly due to connections made by respected on-chain detective ZachXBT to suspicious Bitcoin (BTC) transactions.
Monero Soars After $330 Million BTC Theft
Privacy-focused token Monero experienced a significant 52% increase in value, reaching a four-year high of $347 earlier this week. This impressive rise followed the cryptocurrency advancing from a previously established support level of $220-$230 towards the $340 resistance mark.
However, as prices rose, detective ZachXBT highlighted a “suspicious transfer” that occurred around the same time—one involving 3,520 BTC, valued at approximately $330.7 million, that was allegedly made on the evening prior to the price spike.
The transferred funds were laundered through more than six instant exchanges shortly after the initial transaction, with XMR being traded for Bitcoin, suggesting a timing strategy linked to Monero’s price increase.
Speculation arose regarding the source of the stolen Bitcoin, with some suggesting it could be connected to the 2014 Bitstamp hack. ZachXBT dismissed this, proposing that the wallet’s owner was likely an early Bitcoin investor who had been holding the assets for a considerable period.
Concerns have also been raised about whether the wallet owner voluntarily made the transactions or if a theft had occurred. ZachXBT underscored multiple indicators that point towards the latter, such as the wallet’s history and the patterns of the transaction, which involved smaller incremental transfers to various exchanges. The high fees associated with such transactions further suggest inefficiency indicative of a theft.
Interestingly, ZachXBT noted that this incident appears unrelated to the Lazarus Group, a North Korean hacking collective known for major thefts, including $1.5 billion in Ethereum (ETH) from the exchange Bybit.
Is XMR Near A Breakout?
In the aftermath of this sudden price spike, Monero has retraced approximately 25%, now trading in the range of $250-$260. Analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that XMR successfully retested its support level at $214 during the current market recovery.
Notably, XMR has remained within the $112-$214 price range since 2022, with significant movements occurring post the US elections in November when it surged above crucial resistance lines.
After a rally in Q3 2024, Monero found itself within a pivotal $214-286 range that had historically acted as both support and resistance. It notably peaked at its 2018 all-time high (ATH) of $542 and the 2021 high of $480 after breaching the range’s upper boundary.
As the cryptocurrency navigated its Q1 2025 drop towards the $200 support zone, it appeared to bounce back effectively. Since reclaiming the support level the previous week, Monero has surged into the $220-$230 territory once again, though initial resistance was met.
Despite the controversies surrounding its recent price action, analysts contend that Monero seems to be mirroring its early 2021 narrative, having reclaimed its levels and tested its lower boundaries before potentially breaking out to reach new cycle highs.
Should the XMR price maintain its current structure, predictions indicate a potential surge past the $300 mark may be on the horizon.
