In a recent episode of the Coinstories podcast, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Bitwise Asset Management, provided a compelling long-term forecast for Bitcoin, predicting that it could reach as high as $1 million per coin by 2029. Engaging with host Nathalie Brunell, Hougan articulated the three main factors underpinning his optimistic outlook: increased institutional adoption, emerging regulatory clarity, and sustained long-term demand that will surpass new supply.
Why Bitcoin Could Hit $1 Million By 2029
During the interview, Hougan emphasized the transformative role of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in driving substantial institutional inflows. He noted the unexpected scale of new investments following the launch of these ETFs in January 2024, stating, “Before the Bitcoin ETFs launched, the most successful ETF of all time gathered $5 billion dollars in its first year. These [Bitcoin] ETFs did thirty-seven billion.”
He pointed out that the momentum of these inflows is likely to persist due to a current lack of familiarity among financial advisers about Bitcoin investments. “Fewer than half of all financial advisers in the US can even have a proactive conversation about investing in Bitcoin at present,” Hougan remarked, suggesting that greater permission for advisers to recommend Bitcoin could catalyze further asset inflows.
On the topic of competition among leading ETF providers, Hougan highlighted the entry of BlackRock as beneficial for the broader ecosystem, fostering overall participation. He stressed that Bitwise aims to serve both institutional investors and those seeking “crypto native” management. By participating alongside other prominent firms in a highly competitive environment, Hougan observed that fee structures have significantly declined, “It’s an incredible deal for the investor.”
Beyond institutional finance, Hougan discussed the explosive growth of stablecoins, which he labeled a “killer app.” He referred to the global demand for cheaper and quicker transaction methods and asserted that stablecoins can vastly enhance cross-border money transfers. He anticipates a multi-trillion-dollar stablecoin market in the foreseeable future, contingent on favorable regulatory conditions.
Despite potential hurdles regarding whether stablecoin issuers should maintain short or long-dated treasuries under U.S. legislation, he remains optimistic that the market will encourage competition and innovation. The conversation also explored increasing corporate engagement with Bitcoin, which, according to Hougan, remains robust despite existing challenges, such as “weird accounting rules.” He illustrated that companies bought hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin last year and forecasted further growth as these issues are resolved.
Furthermore, Hougan shared insights from private surveys revealing a significant disconnect between financial advisers’ personal interest in Bitcoin—“over 50%” already holding it—and the roughly 15–20% who actually allocate it on behalf of clients. He believes this discrepancy will diminish as institutional committees become more accepting of Bitcoin investments.
Regulatory Shifts And The Washington Factor
Throughout the interview, Hougan emphasized that the market may be “underpricing the change in Washington.” He recalled past reluctance by banks to accept deposits from crypto companies and the chilling impact of subpoenas and lawsuits on industry growth. Hougan noted that a more favorable government stance is an essential factor for unleashing capital inflows and expressed optimism about bipartisan support for stablecoin legislation.
Beyond the regulatory landscape, Hougan argued that Bitcoin stands to thrive in a macroeconomic environment marked by unpredictability. With fears of inflation or abrupt deflationary events, he asserted that even a minor commitment to Bitcoin acts as a safeguard against potential economic turbulence. He noted that many of Bitwise’s large clients are searching for ways to earn yield on their Bitcoin holdings through derivatives or lending, showcasing the conviction levels typical of the crypto community.
Hougan concluded by reiterating the dynamics of Bitcoin’s limited supply against an ever-growing institutional appetite. He stated, “I think Bitcoin is well on its way to disrupting gold… We think it’s going to cross a million dollars by 2029.” While acknowledging the volatility of daily price fluctuations, he remains confident in the solid long-term fundamentals of Bitcoin.
At press time, BTC was trading at $84,138.
