By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
President Trump’s much-anticipated Liberation Day is here, and market sentiments are teetering as they await critical announcements regarding U.S. tariffs. Inside the administration, the prevailing mood appears to be one of uncertainty.
Reports indicate that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik may face scrutiny for his support of aggressive tariff measures, which could label him as a scapegoat if the U.S. plunges into a recession. This information comes from The Independent, a U.K. online newspaper.
The potential for a recession seems more pronounced, as the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects a significant first-quarter contraction of -3.7% for U.S. real GDP, a stark and rapid decline from previous forecasts of +3.9% two months ago and +2.3% one month ago.
As the President has yet to reveal the targeted nations for these tariffs, he is expected to make an announcement following the close of the stock market at 4 p.m.
In contrasting market action, Bitcoin (BTC) remains steady, trading around $85,000, with minor fluctuations observed for the day. On Tuesday, U.S. equities ended on a positive note, although futures indicate a slightly bearish outlook for Wednesday.
Currently, Bitcoin is approximately 25% off its all-time high of $109,000, which it achieved on January 20. This positions BTC favorably in relation to the performance of the “Magnificent 7” tech stocks, which have experienced declines ranging from 17% to 50% from their peak values.
Bitcoin’s resilience during this cycle is noteworthy when viewed against historical downturns. Last year, BTC faced a significant drop of 75% from its peak value, hitting a low point of $15,500, which is notably higher than the 34% decline of the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ). This year, Bitcoin has decreased by 30%, whilst QQQ has experienced a 16% drop, marking a relative drawdown of 1.87 times. Such performance metrics indicate that Bitcoin is demonstrating greater resilience over time, albeit with volatility remaining a core characteristic.
Ultimately, the market’s reaction to today’s tariff announcement will be crucial. Investors and analysts alike should remain vigilant.
What to Watch
Crypto:
April 2, 10:00 a.m.: The U.S. House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing to discuss measures including the H.R. 2392, the Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy (STABLE) Act of 2025, and H.R. 1919, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. Livestream link.
April 2: XIONMarkets (XION) is set for its mainnet launch.
April 5: The alleged birthday of Satoshi Nakamoto.
April 9, 10:00 a.m.: Another U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing will address updates needed for U.S. securities laws concerning digital assets. Livestream link.
Macro
April 2, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics will release February data on industrial production, with estimates forecasting a MoM increase of 0.5% against a previous figure of 0%.
April 2, 4:00 p.m.: The Trump administration will announce the details regarding the reciprocal tariffs.
April 3: The administration’s 25% tariff on imported automobiles and parts, initially announced on March 26, comes into effect.
April 4: Key speeches from Fed officials are scheduled, including one from Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell on the economic outlook.
Market Movements
Market activity remains a mixed bag as participants wrestle with news cycles and policy implications. Additionally, cryptocurrency developments are a critical area to monitor in light of changing regulations and emerging tech.
As the market evolves, stakeholders should remain informed and ready to adapt to new economic landscapes shaped by these administrative changes.
