By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Today marks the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in the U.S., where market participants are looking ahead to remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. While predictions indicate no change in interest rates, the focus will be on Powell’s guidance regarding future monetary policy.
The CME’s FedWatch tool suggests a 97.6% probability that rates will remain steady, with Polymarket traders estimating a slightly higher probability at 98.3%. This reinforces the notion that the outlook is the primary concern for traders today.
Analysts at Spanish bank Bankinter have cautioned against expecting a rally in risk assets, citing signs of reduced container volumes from China at major U.S. ports. They predict Powell will express a cautious approach toward both potential rate cuts and the current inflation climate, suggesting that markets may experience a period of uncertainty.
The note from Bankinter indicates, “We are entering a phase of unclear direction, probably sideways but with a weakening bias that may last for several weeks.” This sentiment is compounded by geopolitical tensions, particularly the recent military escalation between India and Pakistan, which presents additional volatility to global markets.
On the commodities front, spot gold has retreated by more than 1.7%, reflecting traders’ hopes for a U.S.-China trade agreement. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies are witnessing a resurgence, particularly after New Hampshire has become the first state to allow public funds to be invested in crypto. Bitcoin (BTC) has risen by 3% in the past 24 hours, and the broader CoinDesk 20 index has increased by 2.57%, contrasting with declines in equity markets seen on Tuesday.
The ambiguity surrounding safe-haven assets versus tendencies towards increased volatility amidst easing trade tensions will dictate investor behavior in the coming weeks. One indication of shifting preferences can be observed in the influx of capital into BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF, which has garnered greater net inflows than the largest gold ETF in 2025 thus far.
Ethereum has also made headlines with the Pectra upgrade, marking a significant enhancement for the network. However, it remains to be seen if this improvement will change ETH’s declining value relative to BTC, where ether has depreciated by approximately 47% year-to-date.
What to Watch
- Crypto Events:
- May 8: Alex Mashinsky, founder of the defunct Celsius Network, is due for sentencing in court.
- May 12: The U.S. SEC will hold a roundtable focused on the tokenization of assets.
- Macro Events:
- May 7: The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2 p.m., followed by the FOMC press conference.
- May 8: The Bank of England will disclose its interest rate decision.
- May 8: Jobless claims data is set to be released by the U.S. Department of Labor.
- May 9-12: Trade talks are expected between Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
- Earnings Report:
- May 8: Earnings reports expected from CleanSpark, Coinbase Global, Hut 8, and MARA Holdings.
Token Events
- Governance votes:
- Arbitrum DAO and Compound DAO are conducting votes on significant proposals, closing on May 8.
- Unlocks:
- Movement (MOVE) and Solayer (LAYER) are scheduled for significant unlocks in the coming days.
- Token Launches:
- New tokens like Obol (OBOL) and Space and Time (SXT) are set to list this week.
Conferences
CoinDesk’s Consensus will take place in Toronto from May 14-16. Save 15% on passes using code DAYBOOK.
As the markets navigate through a landscape marked by potential changes in monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and evolving technology in cryptocurrencies, investors are encouraged to stay informed and prepared for various outcomes.
