In the early hours of Asian trading, prominent cryptocurrencies such as Dogecoin (DOGE), Ether (ETH), and XRP witnessed a decline of more than 5%, as traders capitalized on profit from an earlier rally. Market participants are particularly attentive to the impending release of the U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) figures set for later today.
The CoinDesk 20 index reported an average decrease of 4.5%, with DOGE leading the downward trend at 7%. In contrast, Toncoin’s TON emerged as the only token in the top 20 by market capitalization to show positive movement, increasing by 5% within the past 24 hours.
On a different note, gold prices surged to unprecedented levels, crossing the $3,109 threshold during the Asian morning session, marking a remarkable rise since early March. According to Bloomberg, the MSCI World Index is experiencing its longest losing streak in a month, while an Asian equity gauge is set for its most significant decline since February 28.
A substantial $12.2 billion in bitcoin (BTC) options is expected to expire today, with the maximum pain point set at $85,000. Market commentators from Singapore-based QCP Capital noted that “spot is trading sideways and open interest continues to bleed lower, indicating a prevailing lack of near-term optimism.” They further emphasized that with the PCE index data due for release, any potential short-term gains may remain constrained as the market anticipates further clarity on U.S. trade dynamics.
The PCE index serves as a crucial indicator of inflation, capturing changes in consumer expenditures and behaviors. This monthly release could significantly influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. Elevated PCE readings generally signal rising inflation, potentially triggering rate hikes to temper economic overheating—thereby diminishing risk appetites and exerting downward pressure on bitcoin prices as investors pivot toward safer assets.
On the contrary, lower PCE metrics could suggest subdued inflation, possibly resulting in steady or even reduced interest rates, thereby enhancing liquidity and supporting bitcoin as an attractive speculative asset or inflation hedge.
The upcoming release on March 28 holds the potential to alter market sentiment, with bitcoin’s response intrinsically linked to how the data affects expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policy—often leading to heightened volatility as traders recalibrate their positions.
The market has appeared strained since Thursday, following President Donald Trump’s warning of intensified tariffs on Canada and the European Union if the two entities were to collaborate, which he claims could adversely affect U.S. economic activity. In retaliation, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney expressed his country’s intent to diversify trade relationships, citing that the U.S. is becoming “no longer a reliable partner.”
As highlighted by Innokenty Isers, CEO of Paybis, “The global market is highly sensitive to monetary policies set by major economies, particularly the United States.” He further noted that given bitcoin’s inherent volatility, risk-averse investors are increasingly seeking alternative hedges against inflation.
“Given the prolonged nature of the trade war and potential inflationary pressures ahead, the allocation of capital toward BTC as a safeguard against economic instability may very well diminish,” Isers cautioned.
