By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Risk-assets are showing signs of recovery, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading above $87,000 and the S&P 500 successfully reclaiming its 200-day moving average for the first time since March 10.
However, with a quarterly options expiry approaching on Friday, volatility is anticipated to rise, as over $12 billion in notional value is set to expire on Deribit. The max pain price is positioned at $85,000, while the bulk of open interest is centered around $100,000 call options, emphasizing the potential for significant market movement.
In geopolitical developments, President Trump has initiated new strategies in the ongoing trade war, proposing “secondary tariffs” that could impose a 25% levy on nations purchasing oil and gas from Venezuela, according to Bloomberg. This move is part of a wider agenda to reinforce U.S. economic interests, where exemptions may apply to certain countries, but additional tariffs on autos, lumber, and semiconductor chips are likely to be announced soon, with a potential implementation date as early as April 2.
Bloomberg also highlighted comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who underscored the strategic utility of tariffs, describing them as tools for negotiation leverage, government revenue generation, and trade rebalancing toward U.S. interests.
Across the Atlantic, U.K. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is preparing for the upcoming Spring Statement amid surging bond yields that pose challenges for fiscal planning. Preliminary reports suggest proposals for civil service job cuts will be featured, as additional tax increases are ruled out.
What to Watch
Crypto:
March 25: The Mimir upgrade will launch on Chromia (CHR) mainnet.
March 25, 11:00 p.m.: Celo (CELO) mainnet’s hard fork at block height 31056500 marks its transition from an L1 to an Ethereum L2.
March 26: Circle’s stablecoin, USDC, will begin trading on the Japan-based crypto exchange, SBI VC Trade.
March 27: Walrus (WAL) mainnet goes live.
April 1: Metaplanet (TYO: 3350) 10-for-1 stock split takes effect.
Macro:
March 27, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release (Final) Q4 GDP data.
March 27, 10:00 a.m.: A Senate Banking Committee hearing will be held regarding the nomination of Paul Atkins to chair the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Market Movements
Currently, BTC is trading at $86,889.75, reflecting a 1.12% decline from yesterday, while ETH is down 1.01% at $2,064.85. The broader CoinDesk 20 index shows a slight downward trend, dropping 0.35% to 2,782.83.
In the current environment, where speculations on tariffs intensify and crypto markets gear up for significant upgrades, investors and analysts alike should stay alert for developments that could influence market performance.
As Bitcoin approaches the trendline indicative of past severe price drops, a breakthrough could accelerate trends toward reaching the $100K threshold and beyond—potentially marking a significant bullish phase in the market.
Conclusion
In summary, both market participants and observers should pay close attention to the upcoming technical and macroeconomic events, as they may yield crucial insights into the future trajectories of both risk-assets and cryptocurrencies. With volatility on the horizon, preparation and responsiveness will be key to navigating this dynamic landscape.
