By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin and most major cryptocurrencies are experiencing a downturn following the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s refusal to list futures tied to XRP and SOL, which has been perceived as a barometer of institutional involvement. Concurrently, traditional markets are bracing for the Bank of Japan’s anticipated interest-rate hike slated for this Friday.
Despite Bitcoin’s persistent performance above $100,000, retail demand continues to show vigor. According to Glassnode, the shrimp-Crab cohort, comprising addresses holding up to 10 BTC, has absorbed 1.9 times the newly mined supply last month, amassing over 25,600 BTC. Additionally, long-term holders appear to be exercising caution with their spending and profit-taking practices, suggesting a steadfast commitment to their investment strategies.
A notable concern arises from the possibility of dropping below the $100,000 mark; fluctuations in sentiment could lead to a dramatic shift in trading behavior. Wintermute’s OTC trader, Jake Ostrovskis, cautions that such a drop could frame Monday’s inauguration as a sell-the-news event, triggering quick narrative changes.
On a more optimistic note, reports indicate that the number of whale wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP has reached an unprecedented 2,083, signaling a robust accumulation and growing confidence in XRP’s future performance.
In innovation news, excitement is brewing over Bitcoin Synths. These synthetic assets enable users to capitalize on Bitcoin price movements without directly owning the cryptocurrency, offering a simpler alternative to wrapped tokens and specialized bridges that complicate trading and lending protocols.
Furthermore, Ethereum layer-2 protocols are trending with record transaction volumes; however, concerns regarding nearing capacity limits persist.
On the macroeconomic front, recent Labor Department figures suggest that the “all tenant rent” index, a key measure of shelter inflation within the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has increased at a decelerated rate last quarter. This data indicates that inflationary fears may be overstated, coinciding with a potential shift in the Fed’s hawkish outlook, casting a positive light on risk assets. Stakeholders should remain vigilant!
What to Watch
Crypto
Jan. 23: First deadline for SEC’s decision on NYSE Arca’s Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL) proposal to list shares as an ETF.
Jan. 25: SEC decisions due on four spot Solana ETFs including Bitwise Solana ETF.
Jan. 29: Launch of Ice Open Network (ION) mainnet.
Feb. 4: Earnings report by MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR).
Feb. 4: Pepecoin (PEPE) halving.
Feb. 5, 3:00 p.m.: Boba Network’s Holocene hard fork for the Ethereum-based L2 mainnet.
Macro
Jan. 23, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Department of Labor’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report.
Jan. 23, 10:00 a.m.: Release of National Association of Realtors December 2024 U.S. Existing Home Sales.
Jan. 23, 4:30 p.m.: Fed’s H.4.1 report release on central bank balance sheets.
Token Events
Governance discussions are active across various DAOs concerning incentive adjustments and project funding.
Jan. 23: Livepeer (LPT) hosting a Core Dev call.
Jan. 24: An activation vote for Arbitrum BoLD is set to conclude.
Jan. 31: Unlocks of Optimism (OP) and Jupiter (JUP) circulating supplies are anticipated.
Conferences:
Swiss WEB3FEST 2025 concludes its 12-day series this week.
Day 4 of 5: World Economic Forum Annual Meeting.
Market Movements:
BTC is down 4.1% to $102,020; ETH down 3.85% at $3,206.18; CoinDesk 20 sees a decline of 3.61% to 3,799.21.
Technical Analysis
The latest trend suggests a potential double top reversal pattern for BTC. Monitoring levels below $100,000 may indicate further bearish sentiment.
Conclusion
As the crypto market continues to navigate the complexities of institutional interest and macroeconomic indicators, traders and investors must remain alert to potential shifts that could shape future movements. Stay informed!
