As we navigate through the current market conditions, Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are exhibiting attempts to push the price upwards past the $85,000 mark. However, resistance is apparent as bears have been maintaining pressure on this rally. A positive indicator has emerged, with larger investors trending towards accumulation at lower price points. According to research firm Santiment, wallets holding 10 BTC or more have collectively acquired approximately 5,000 Bitcoin since March 3. Continued accumulation by these substantial players could lead to improved performance in the latter half of March.
Nonetheless, not all experts share the bullish outlook. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has expressed concerns that Bitcoin may retest the $78,000 level, with a possibility of dropping below $75,000. He noted that a descent into the $70,000 to $75,000 range could provoke heightened volatility, as a significant amount of open interest is concentrated within this price zone.
Market sentiment remains largely bearish among short-term investors. Data from CoinShares reveals that cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs) have experienced substantial outflows, totaling $876 million last week, bringing the four-week cumulative outflow to $4.75 billion. Bitcoin ETPs accounted for the majority of these outflows at $756 million. This raises the question: Can Bitcoin initiate a recovery from its current standing, pulling altcoins along in its ascent?
S&P 500 Index
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has faced significant challenges, recently turning down from its 20-day exponential moving average (5,900) and subsequently breaking below the 5,773 support level on March 6, completing a double-top pattern. The index bounced off the 5,670 level on March 7, but bears have continued to dominate, leading to a break below this support on March 10 and signaling potential further decline towards the 5,400 mark.
US Dollar Index
In a parallel development, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has also shown weakness, sharply declining on March 3 and breaking beneath the 105.42 support level on March 5. This movement suggests that the previous breakout above 108 may have constituted a bull trap. Buyers are attempting to protect the 103.73 level, yet resistance is expected at the 20-day EMA (106.03), which could lead to additional downward pressure if breached.
Bitcoin and Altcoin Analysis
Bitcoin’s price took a hit after breaking below the support line of the symmetrical triangle pattern on March 9, indicating a stronger selling position. Presently, bulls are working to defend the $81,500 to $78,258 support zone, although attempts to rally have faced resistance at the breakdown level. Failure to maintain above the $78,258 threshold may trigger a drop to $73,777.
For Ether (ETH), the trend appears increasingly bearish after closing below the critical $2,111 support level on March 9. Although minor support exists at $1,993, a sustained breach could see the price tumble to $1,750 or even further down to $1,550.
Other notable cryptocurrencies such as XRP, BNB, Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE) are all exhibiting downward trends as well, with significant overhead resistance levels identified. XRP faces scrutiny at critical support near $2, while BNB is at risk of declining towards $500 if it cannot rise above the 20-day EMA ($601).
The broader market dynamics indicate a challenging environment for both cryptocurrencies and traditional indices, as investor sentiment remains wary in anticipation of more favorable conditions. Careful analysis and strategic positioning will be essential as we move forward.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
