By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
As we approach the jobs report set for release later today, markets appear to be in a bullish mood. Bitcoin (BTC) is climbing toward the $97,000 mark, aided by an eight-day rally in stock markets, including the S&P 500, which has enjoyed its longest winning streak since August. This growth comes amid growing optimism regarding the easing of trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.
However, despite this optimism, the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index remains largely unchanged within the last 24 hours. Recent data indicating a decline in first-quarter GDP points to ongoing economic strain resulting from trade war effects. Market participants are increasingly speculating that the Federal Reserve may implement four interest rate cuts this year, exceeding prior expectations. However, the recent uptick in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s favored measure of inflation, presents a challenge for easing policies, according to James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares.
“Today’s payrolls data will play a crucial role in shaping our understanding of the current economic landscape,” Butterfill asserts.
Once the Fed commits to reducing rates, it is likely to be amidst a significant growth deterioration, rather than as a preemptive measure. Such a shift could potentially ignite a significant rally in Bitcoin, as investors search for alternative stores of value amid aggressive monetary easing, Butterfill concludes.
This policy shift may also correlate with Bitcoin’s historical trends. Since 2013, May has featured an average gain for the cryptocurrency of 7.52%, as noted by CoinGlass. Moreover, Ether (ETH), which has lagged compared to BTC, averages a remarkable 27.3% gain each May since 2016, marking it as the strongest month for Ethereum.
“Confidence among investors in the crypto market is slowly returning following the turbulent start to the year. With April witnessing a rebound across major cryptocurrencies, optimism is growing as trade-driven macro fears subside,” comments Vijay Chetty, CEO of Eclipse. The increasing clarity in regulatory frameworks is an “underappreciated catalyst that will enhance the groundwork for broader institutional involvement,” Chetty emphasizes.
Upcoming Events to Monitor
- Crypto:
- May 5, 3 a.m.: Initiation of IOTA’s Rebased network upgrade, enhancing capacity to 50,000 transactions per second.
- May 5, 11 a.m.: Kaspa (KAS) will launch its Crescendo network upgrade.
- May 6: Launch of Casper Network (CSPR) 2.0 mainnet upgrade, focusing on faster transactions and better staking functionalities.
- May 7, 6:05 a.m.: Activation of the upcoming Pectra hard fork network upgrade on Ethereum (ETH).
- Macro:
- May 2, 8:30 a.m.: Release of April employment data by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- May 2, 9 a.m.: S&P Global to reveal April PMI data for Brazil.
- May 5, 9:45 a.m.: Final U.S. April PMI data by S&P Global anticipated.
- May 5, 10:00 a.m.: Expected U.S. April economic activity data release by ISM.
- Earnings:
- May 6: Cipher Mining (CIFR) expected pre-market reporting at $-0.07.
- May 8: Post-market results expected for Coinbase Global (COIN) with estimates of $2.08.
With these developments unfolding, the mood in the crypto market and beyond is certainly one to watch, particularly as investor sentiment sways in response to economic updates and regulatory evolvements.
Stay tuned as we monitor the market for further insights and updates!
