As Bitcoin hovers just above $105,000 on June 5, it is experiencing its lowest realized volatility in nearly two years. Despite this quiet period, Swan, the Los Angeles-based financial services firm focused solely on Bitcoin, asserts that the market is on the brink of a profound re-pricing.
The Last Chance To Buy?
In a recent thread on X, the firm posited that the traditional four-year boom-and-bust cycle is transitioning into what they term “the last rotation” – a relatively unnoticed transfer of Bitcoin from retail speculators to institutions with significantly longer investment timelines. This shift signals an exit of less committed investors and an entrance of a new wave characterized by corporate treasuries, ETFs, and multinationals like BlackRock and Fidelity.
So far, 2025 has not followed the typical playbook. Previous third years in the Bitcoin cycle—2013, 2017, and 2021—were marked by explosive price movements. In contrast, this year, while experiencing notable price action, has also seen prolonged periods of sideways trading, leading some to label it as “boring.” Swan highlights that this perceived monotony may obscure an underlying supply squeeze as seasoned holders step back to take profits while long-only buyers steadily absorb the available supply.
Swan emphasizes that corporations acquiring Bitcoin are not engaging as traders but rather as long-term holders. In their perspective, this transition involves three interconnected rotations: first, a shift between entities, where trustees and early adopters exit, and ETFs and companies with robust balance sheets step in; second, an evolution in intentions, as speculation transitions into genuine allocation; and third, a generational shift with Millennials, now entering their prime earning years, inheriting wealth and increasingly choosing Bitcoin over traditional assets.
According to Swan, the dynamics of supply render these shifts irreversible. The firm argues, “When long-term capital meets inelastic supply, the float starts vanishing,” suggesting that this scenario could lead to explosive price movements. The broader economic backdrop intensifies the situation as a weakening US dollar coincides with surging bond yields, hinting at a potential flow of excess capital into Bitcoin as a stable store of value.
Swan concludes with a cautionary perspective: if investors are selling now, they may be relinquishing their Bitcoin to institutions planning to hold indefinitely. Once these assets disappear from the market, the likelihood of retrieval dwindles significantly.
For those observing Bitcoin’s position around $105,000, it might not signify market fatigue but rather a crucial pause before a significant liquidity event. In this potential scenario, sellers may vanish, while resolute buyers remain steadfast, pushing prices higher to restore equilibrium.
“Think twice,” Swan urges potential profit-takers. “The float is drying up. The buyers are built different. This is the last Bitcoin rotation.” If their prognosis holds true, the current tranquil phase in Bitcoin’s market may be remembered as the calm before an unprecedented storm.
As of now, Bitcoin trades at $104,605.
