In a newly released investor note, H.C. Wainwright & Co., one of the oldest US investment banks established in 1868, has projected a substantial upswing for the price of Bitcoin. The firm has revised its previous Bitcoin price target for the end of 2025 from $145,000 to a striking $225,000. This projection is underpinned by a mix of historical trends, macroeconomic indicators, and emerging regulatory and institutional factors.
“We estimate BTC will reach a cycle high of $225,000 by YE2025,” the firm states, referencing both market cycles and the potential for a more accommodating digital-asset regulatory landscape in the United States under a new administration in 2025.
Why Bitcoin Could Reach $225,000 By Year End
The analysis by H.C. Wainwright highlights several pivotal forces propelling Bitcoin’s growth trajectory. A significant catalyst identified is the anticipated wider availability of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US, a development likely to unlock new waves of institutional capital. Additionally, the firm cites “accelerating institutional investor and corporate adoption” as a major contributor to its bullish outlook.
Moreover, the investment bank’s models assume an improving overall market backdrop, which aligns with growing global liquidity and a reduction in potential regulatory overhang. H.C. Wainwright is cautious, noting that the forecast is sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, particularly the trends in M2 money supply, which has been trending downward since October.
While projecting a considerable price hike by 2025, H.C. Wainwright acknowledges that Bitcoin’s journey toward $225,000 is likely to face volatility. The bank cautions: “~20-30% drawdowns during bull markets are not uncommon. We estimate BTC could retrace back down to the mid-$70,000 range in early 1Q25 before resuming its uptrend.” They attribute these potential pullbacks to Bitcoin’s historical volatility and its correlation with global liquidity trends.
If Bitcoin achieves a price of $225,000, H.C. Wainwright estimates a total Bitcoin market capitalization of approximately $4.5 trillion, accounting for about 25% of gold’s current $18 trillion market cap. This scenario reflects a 113% increase over current levels. Notably, the note highlights a striking scenario yet to be factored into its core forecast: “Our new 2025 price target does not account for the possibility of the US government officially adopting BTC as a treasury reserve asset next year. If this were to be implemented, we believe BTC could significantly exceed our base case price target.”
H.C. Wainwright’s analysis extends beyond Bitcoin to encompass the broader crypto market. Historically, Bitcoin’s dominance (its share of the total crypto market cap) tends to diminish during market peaks, evidenced by a dip into the low 40% range near the last bull cycle peak in November 2021. Looking ahead, the firm anticipates Bitcoin’s dominance to decline to 45% by the end of 2025, down from approximately 56% currently. Under this projection, the total crypto market is expected to swell from $3.6 trillion today to around $10 trillion by the close of 2025.
The coverage universe of publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies may significantly benefit from the anticipated price surge. “If our predictions are accurate, this could lead to substantial upward estimate revisions for our coverage universe over the upcoming year.”
At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $96,221.
