Key Takeaways:
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88% of Bitcoin’s supply is in profit below $95,000, signaling a reset in investor expectations.
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The current price range of $75,000–$95,000 may represent a structural bottom, in line with market conditions from Q3 2024.
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The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio at 1.74 indicates historical support, suggesting cooling unrealized gains and potential for future growth.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) market dynamics are shifting, as data from Glassnode reveals that 88% of the supply is currently in profit, with losses primarily seen among buyers in the $95,000-$100,000 range. This notable profitability surge, rebounding from a long-term average of 75%, suggests a significant reset in investor expectations.
Recently, Bitcoin’s price recovered from its long-term cumulative mean percentage in profit. Earlier, in August 2024, Bitcoin retested the 75% mean at around $60,000, indicating that the price range of $75,000–$95,000 might serve as a useful bottom, correlating with the structural market dynamics observed in Q3 2024.
Furthermore, recent reductions in holder sales through exchanges provide crucial insights. The total exchange flow (inflow + outflow) to network activity ratio has displayed a significant 1.5x decrease post Bitcoin’s all-time high, as pointed out by Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr., confirming that current market growth is more organic.
Adler Jr. explained that, unlike prior price peaks that were marked by high ratios indicating heavy selling (highlighted by orange bars), current levels do not reflect such urgency, reinforcing a more stable market environment. High profitability paired with reduced exchange inflows suggests weakened selling pressure among holders, fostering a strengthened holder sentiment within the $75,000 to $95,000 range. This indicates that many investors view BTC as undervalued rather than a selling opportunity, aligning with the broader bullish sentiment prevailing in the market.
BTC Data Indicates Cooling Unrealized Gains Below $95K
Glassnode highlights that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, an indicator of market sentiment, has normalized to its long-term average of 1.74. Historically, this level has served as a strong support zone since January 2024 during consolidation phases, signaling a reduction in unrealized gains and establishing a potential base for future growth.
Concurrently, the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio stands neutral at 0.5, with Bitcoin priced at $94,400, in contrast to its previous overbought signals observed when BTC hit this price point in February 2025. This shift in the market dynamics and the evolution of holder behaviors suggest that the current cohort of profitable investors may be less prone to sell at these levels, further bolstering the bullish outlook for the prevailing market structure.
This evolving landscape of Bitcoin investments highlights a cautious yet optimistic shift in investor sentiment, positioning Bitcoin for a vibrant and potentially profitable future.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
