As the wider cryptocurrency market experiences fluctuations, Ethereum (ETH) has notably bounced back towards the end of April, crossing the significant threshold of $1,800 following a prolonged price correction that began in December 2024. This resurgence may signal a shift in market sentiment and provide a glimmer of hope for investors who have faced challenging conditions in recent months. Renowned crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci has offered insights into this recovery, shedding light on potential bullish trends.
Ethereum Retail Investor Inflows Support Bullish Case
In a post on X dated May 2, Burak Kesmeci suggests that Ethereum could be on the verge of a sustained price uptrend, driven by the activity of short-term holders. These holders, defined as wallets that have acquired ETH within the last 155 days, represent a dynamic and often reactive segment of the market that typically drives speculation and short-term trading.
Currently, the number of ETH short-term holders stands at approximately 3.92 million, which Kesmeci indicates is approaching a key threshold of 4 million. Surpassing this number historically correlates with price rallies for Ethereum, as seen in previous years, notably in 2022 and 2024. Until this pivotal mark is achieved, Kesmeci cautions that the market may lack the necessary momentum to support a sustained rally.
Interestingly, the sentiment among long-term holders has also strengthened, with approximately 104.24 million individuals currently holding ETH. This increase in long-term holders typically denotes market confidence, as these investors are less inclined to sell their assets, opting instead to hold onto them for extended periods. This dichotomy between short-term and long-term holders will play a crucial role in determining Ethereum’s price trajectory moving forward.
Ethereum SMA 365 Presents Another Barrier
While short-term holder dynamics provide a glimpse into potential bullish momentum, Kesmeci also points out that Ethereum remains significantly below its 365-day simple moving average (SMA 365). Currently, the SMA 365 stands at $2,849, representing a crucial resistance level that must be overcome for a sustained upward trend to materialize. The SMA 365 serves as a vital barometer of market conditions, indicating past performance and helping to shape traders’ expectations.
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at about $1,835, reflecting a minor decline of 0.80% over the past day. Additionally, trading volume has decreased by 15.01%, which may raise concerns about the sustainability of the recent price movements.
In summary, while Ethereum’s recent recovery suggests the potential for bullish momentum, a closer examination of short-term and long-term holder behaviors, along with critical resistance levels like the SMA 365, reveals a complex landscape. Market participants should remain vigilant as these factors could heavily influence ETH’s trajectory in the coming months.
