After breaking above the $3,800 mark, the Ethereum price appears to be on track for a significant new phase in its market cycle. The current trend closely mirrors the patterns observed during 2016-2017, before the altcoin experienced a dramatic surge to new all-time highs. This comparison suggests that if history repeats itself, the upcoming rally for Ethereum could merely be in its infancy.
Ethereum Price Mirrors Bullish 2017
In 2017, prior to the bull market, Ethereum struggled to align with Bitcoin’s price movements, resulting in a lag. Each upward trend led to setbacks for Ethereum’s price, creating a challenging environment. This culminated in a range-bound phase characterized by false breakouts before the price eventually broke free.
Currently, Ethereum finds itself in a similar predicament. It has spent the past year in a range-bound state, experiencing multiple false breakouts that have suppressed its price. A combination of market crashes led to a nearly 50% drop, creating what analysts have termed a perfect bear trap, as articulated by crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader.
The analyst identifies striking similarities between the current Ethereum chart and the trajectory seen during 2016-2017, noting that the same patterns of ranging, fakeouts, and breakouts have emerged. This alignment suggests that, as history suggests, the next phase of the trend may likely follow the playbook established in 2017.
In the wake of the bear trap and eventual breakout of 2017, Ethereum experienced an astonishing rally of approximately 5,000%, climbing from under $8 to over $250 within a year. If a comparable breakout structure applies to Ethereum in 2025, projections could see its price reaching as high as $40,000.
Considering the current market capitalization dynamics, a more conservative target may see Ethereum crossing the $10,000 threshold, indicating a potential 200% increase from its present value. When factoring in a timeline similar to that of 2017, such movements might unfold within the next six months.
Importantly, Ethereum now benefits from institutional backing that was absent in 2017. It has quickly emerged as a favored asset among institutional investors, with over $7 billion funneled into Ethereum by treasury companies. Recent data indicates that in July 2025 alone, more than $2 billion has been directed towards Spot Ethereum ETFs, highlighting a pronounced increase in institutional interest.
Due to this rise in investments from institutions, Merlijn The Trader notes that these entities now hold the reins in the current market, similar to the situation back in 2017. This trend suggests a future of heightened liquidity as major players are expected to dictate and influence the Ethereum price throughout this cycle.
