According to Kevin, a crypto technician known on X and YouTube as @Kev_Capital_TA, Dogecoin’s latest market structure is “significantly better than in prior bull markets.” In a video released on Friday, he analyzed Dogecoin’s three historical cycles and determined that the memecoin’s current breakout-and-retest pattern places a long-term Fibonacci extension at $3.80–$3.90 firmly on the table, contingent upon one crucial condition: Bitcoin must continue its upward trajectory.
Kevin pointed out, “Two cycles in a row, Dogecoin has tagged the 1.618 fib extension.” He added, “Here we are in the third cycle… we have evidence to suggest it has happened 100% of the time. It’s only two data points, though, so that could easily not happen this time.”
Why $3.80 Per Dogecoin Is Possible This Cycle
In his analysis of the log-scale weekly chart, Kevin mapped out Dogecoin’s first super-cycle, characterized by a consolidation phase, breakout, mid-cycle pullback, and blow-off top — culminating at the 1.618 extension. The subsequent cycle echoed this pattern, though “Elon Musk’s Saturday Night Live hype” propelled the price beyond the Fibonacci target into euphoric territory.
In today’s third cycle, Kevin argues that the market appears healthier. A series of breakouts and back-tests of the bear-market range have established a rising channel marked by higher highs and higher lows, anchored around the 200-week EMA/SMA cluster. He states, “This structure looks really good to me… breakout, back-test the 200s, make a higher low—it’s textbook.”
Looking at the monthly chart, the Relative Strength Index exhibits what Kevin describes as “just strength—constant higher lows,” and remains far below the 80-to-90 zone that typically caps prior cycle peaks. Additionally, Kevin highlighted a V-shaped curl in the monthly Stoch RSI, which could indicate that “once it crosses the 20 line, it should provide the momentum we need to really get a durable run higher.”
Further analysis using the two-week Market Cipher readout shows three consecutive years of progressively stronger momentum waves and money-flow inflows. “This is big-time stuff,” he remarked, highlighting each expansion. “Momentum is compressing and building to a point where it’s like, okay, now it’s time to release it.”
A fresh two-week Stoch RSI cross historically signals a significant upward movement, which suggests that the post-halving phase could lead to Dogecoin’s next parabolic leg.
For traders focused on shorter-term gains, Kevin emphasized a macro golden pocket extending from $0.26 to $0.285, bolstered by the daily 200-SMA at $0.27. This zone constitutes a developing bull-flag pattern, targeting $0.32–$0.33 as a measured move derived from an inverse head-and-shoulders accumulation established at $0.15—a level where he mentioned he had “accumulated heavily,” now showing a roughly 60% gain.
“Treat resistance as resistance until it isn’t,” Kevin advised, noting that Bitcoin’s dominance at around 64% continues to siphon liquidity from altcoins. However, he sees “serious signs” indicating that dominance may have reached a local peak at 65.45%, allowing for a rotation into major altcoins like Ethereum, and consequently, Dogecoin.
This Needs To Happen
If Bitcoin retains stability and macroeconomic conditions—including softening inflation, consistent labor data, and potential Federal Reserve easing—remain favorable, Kevin’s next significant price target is the 2021 all-time high of just below $1.00. A decisive break above this level would pivot attention to the 1.618 extension near $3.80.
“I’d be shocked at this point if we don’t go to that level,” he declared but stress-checked the importance of disciplined profit-taking: “There’s nothing worse than riding a move all the way up and not taking profits.”
Kevin dismissed the more ambitious six-and-seven-dollar predictions circulating on social media, insisting that a $3-plus Dogecoin is “absolutely possible” if Bitcoin trends toward $200,000, quantitative tightening concludes, and an altcoin season fully materializes.
As Kevin noted, Dogecoin remains “one of the most popular cryptocurrencies on the planet.” He stated, “When retail comes piling back in, they’re always piling back into Dogecoin.” This psychological feedback loop, coupled with a structurally bullish chart and strengthening momentum indicators, reinforces his belief that Dogecoin could lead the charge in a broader altcoin resurgence.
While the market’s provision of necessary macro support remains uncertain, Kevin’s message is clear: for now, Dogecoin’s technical landscape illustrates a credible pathway to $1, with the ambitious $3.80 target “on the table if Bitcoin maintains its strength and macro conditions remain favorable.” At press time, DOGE was trading at $0.243.
