Research house and exchange-traded product issuer 21Shares is making a compelling case for Dogecoin, arguing that it has reached a level of maturity and value that makes it “a smart addition to your portfolio.” They project a potential bull-market price target of $1.42 per coin, contingent on maintaining bullish market momentum.
In a recent post published on X on April 30, the firm emphasized that “Dogecoin isn’t just a meme anymore—it might be a smart addition to your portfolio.” This assertion is backed by a detailed research note that presents stress-tested portfolio simulations. The simulations showcase a traditional 60/40 equity-bond portfolio that is enhanced first with a 3% allocation to Bitcoin and subsequently with a modest 1% allocation to Dogecoin.
According to 21Shares, the benchmark portfolio returned 7.25% annually, compared to Dogecoin-enhanced portfolios that reached annual returns as high as 8.95%. Furthermore, the Sharpe ratios improved in most tests, indicating enhanced risk-adjusted returns, while the worst peak-to-trough drawdown only deepened by a few percentage points. This incremental performance is attributed to Dogecoin’s impressive decade-long track record of outpacing many large-cap crypto assets while maintaining a low correlation with both crypto and traditional assets. However, the researchers emphasize that disciplined rebalancing remains crucial. “Without it, returns can plateau while risk quietly compounds,” they caution, recommending monthly or weekly rebalancing to optimize performance, particularly during periods of broader market turbulence.
Three Scenarios For Dogecoin
To set expectations for Dogecoin’s future, 21Shares outlines three potential scenarios:
In the bear case, they suggest that Dogecoin’s post-election rally might have “front-run its true cycle potential.” If the cryptocurrency were to compound at just 10% annually from its 2021 peak of $0.73, it would reach around $0.38 by 2025—a doubling from its current price of $0.18, albeit failing to establish a new all-time high within a complete market cycle.
The neutral scenario assumes the total cryptocurrency market will capitalize at $5 trillion, with Dogecoin’s market share dropping from 4% to 3%. In this case, Dogecoin could be valued at roughly $150 billion and trade near $1 per coin, representing a 5.5-fold increase from present levels, while retaining its status as a leading memecoin amidst increasing competition.
Finally, the bullish projection envisions Dogecoin’s compounded growth, calculated at an explosive 189% per year, extending between the pre-2021 low of $0.007 and the current cycle’s trough of $0.0585. Should Dogecoin replicate this growth trajectory, it could reach approximately $1.42. This outcome hinges on a resurgence of “memecoin mania,” the development of tangible real-world use cases, and crucially, deeper integration with major consumer platforms, such as Elon Musk’s X. In such an environment, a full return of retail enthusiasm could potentially position Dogecoin as the breakout asset of the cycle, even doubling its all-time high.
21Shares concludes with a pragmatic statement: “With the right structure, a 1% allocation to Dogecoin isn’t reckless—it’s rewarding.”
At press time, Dogecoin is trading at approximately $0.175.
