As the cryptocurrency market experiences significant fluctuations, market analyst and co-founder of 21st Capital, Sina, shared insights into the plight of short-term Bitcoin holders on April 8. “Short-term holders are in extreme pain right now,” he expressed on X, emphasizing that the biggest accumulation zone around the current prices was at $98,000 for approximately 245,000 BTC.
Sina’s remarks shed light on the struggles of short-term holders, defined as Bitcoin investors who have held their assets for less than 155 days. He noted, “All cohorts of short-term holders (STH) are now in big losses.” This sentiment resonates throughout the Bitcoin community as investors grapple with their investments amid price volatility.
“All cohorts of short-term holders (STH) are now in big losses.”
Unrealized Losses at 2024 Levels
The existing market conditions have led to substantial unrealized losses for most short-term holders. While a select few who purchased during a recent dip—when Bitcoin plummeted to $74,600—may have avoided losses, the majority bought at significantly higher prices.
In examining the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio for short-term holders, Sina reported an average unrealized loss of around 18%. This figure mirrors the levels seen at the bottom of the 2024 price action when Bitcoin hit $52,000. Interestingly, the magnitude of unrealized losses during past bear markets has been even more severe, with STH reaching lows of 40%.
Supporting this analysis, fellow analyst James Check confirmed that nearly 100% of the short-term holder supply is currently underwater, representing over 25% of the total Bitcoin supply. He stated, “We have now reached the lower bound of the $75k to $86k ‘air-pocket’ I started describing back in December.” The market dynamics continue to shift, leaving holders uncertain and concerned.
“Almost 100% of Short-Term Holder supply is now underwater and holding losses. This represents over 25% of the Bitcoin supply.”
Despite the struggles of retail investors, data from Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin whales have continued to accumulate, highlighting a stark contrast in market sentiment. As of the end of March, these larger players have been active, even as panic selling ensued among less seasoned investors.
Currently, Bitcoin has found support at the $74,000 level, aligning with prior major supply clusters beneath $80,000, which includes over 50K BTC at $74,200. With 175K BTC cost basis clusters situated between $74,000 and $70,000, analysts suggest the rate of decline may begin to decelerate.
As of now, Bitcoin’s correction stands at approximately 32% from its peak price on January 20, which is consistent with typical pullbacks experienced in earlier bull market cycles. Notably, Rekt Capital has pointed out that this correction is nearing equivalence to the post-halving pullback, which approached -33%.
Bitcoin Price Outlook
After hitting a 2025 low on April 7, Bitcoin is currently in a recovery phase, reaching $80,000 in early Tuesday trading in Asia. Recent fluctuations were partly influenced by rumors regarding trade tariffs from the Trump administration. However, the asset later retreated below $77,500 before rising again to $80,800.
Moving forward, the stability of this price level remains uncertain as geopolitical tensions persist, with discussions of further tariffs adding to potential market volatility. Investors are advised to remain vigilant while navigating an unpredictable landscape.
As the situation continues to unfold, there is a growing call for both patience and resilience among Bitcoin investors, particularly those among the short-term holder cohort.
