By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Cryptocurrencies fell slightly in the past 24 hours, with the broad market CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index dropping 1.4%. Bitcoin (BTC) is little changed around $95,000. These figures are well within recently observed volatility ranges, occurring after a strong monthly performance in which BTC is on track to rise 15% in April, marking its most significant gain since November.
The market is currently grappling with heightened pessimism regarding the potential effects of President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on nearly every country, alongside a growing optimism that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates sooner than previously expected.
Recently, stock prices have seen a rally based on expectations that Trump would lower the tariffs, supported by anticipated ongoing interest rate cuts, according to commentary from Spanish bank Bankinter.
“Yet the perspective could turn for the worse from today, applying the logic of the data, because — regardless of tariffs and rate cuts — part of the damage has already been done, chiefly to confidence, which is the market’s foundation,” the bank noted in a recent report.
Indeed, several major companies, including P&G, UPS, PepsiCo, American Airlines, and GM, have lowered or pulled their earnings forecasts. Moreover, Bankinter pointed out that French first-quarter GDP data released today showed an increase driven entirely by inventory adjustments, with weaknesses in consumption, investment, and exports.
This trend bodes poorly for the U.S. GDP figure set to release at 8:30 a.m., with some market observers, including Bankinter, suggesting it could contract sharply. Bitcoin’s rise so far this year, in stark contrast with the stock market’s worst 100 days since 1974, could further indicate that the cryptocurrency is beginning to be utilized as a hedge against market uncertainty.
As mentioned earlier this week, Greg Cipolaro, the global head of research at NYDIG, remarked in a note that BTC has been acting “more like the non-sovereign issued store of value that it is.”
Moreover, Bitcoin has recently decoupled from U.S. equities in light of escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, buoyed by increased betting on its value. Spot bitcoin ETFs experienced net inflows of over $3 billion this month according to SoSoValue data, further reflecting a migration toward cryptocurrency amid ongoing uncertainty.
What to Watch
- Crypto:
- April 30, 9:30 a.m.: ProShares will debut three ETFs that will provide leveraged and inverse exposure to XRP.
- April 30, 10:03 a.m.: Gnosis Chain (GNO) will activate the Pectra hard fork on its mainnet.
- May 1: Coinbase Asset Management will introduce the Coinbase Bitcoin Yield Fund (CBYF), aimed at non-U.S. investors.
- May 1, 9 a.m.: Constellation Network (DAG) will activate the Tessellation v3 upgrade on its mainnet.
- May 1, 11 a.m.: THORChain will activate its v3.5 mainnet upgrade.
- May 5, 3 a.m.: IOTA’s Rebased network upgrade starts.
- Macro
- April 30, 8 a.m.: Brazil’s Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases March unemployment data.
- April 30, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics releases preliminary Q1 GDP growth data.
- April 30, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases advance Q1 GDP growth data.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- April 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market.
- May 1: Block (XYZ), post-market.
- May 1: Reddit (RDDT), post-market.
As the crypto landscape continues to navigate these economic shifts, it remains imperative for investors to stay informed and be prepared for the potential volatility that may lie ahead. The interplay between macroeconomic factors and cryptocurrency dynamics will undoubtedly shape the paths of both markets in the coming weeks.
