By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The crypto market has had a bullish 24 hours, buoyed by Wednesday’s soft U.S. core inflation report which alleviated concerns about a hawkish Federal Reserve. Nonetheless, the momentum appears to be slowing.
As the inflation data settles, crypto traders are turning their focus toward the upcoming inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump on January 20. Speculations around potential pro-crypto actions on his first day in office have fueled excitement, with some traders anticipating that bitcoin could reach new heights by that time, while others foresee at least 10% price fluctuations in major altcoins such as XRP, SOL, ETH, and of course, BTC.
Notably, the odds of the U.S. incorporating Bitcoin into its strategic reserve have now risen to 50% for the first time, as indicated on Polymarket.
In an intriguing development, Bitwise, a San Francisco-based crypto asset management firm, has stated on X that it has provided information regarding bitcoin ETFs to a nation-state, bolstering the narrative of sovereign BTC adoption.
Further speculation suggests that SEC commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda might reignite discussions on crypto policy as early as next week. However, a significant market-moving event will be Treasury nominee Scott Bessent’s confirmation hearing before the Senate Finance Committee, which is set to commence at 10:30 a.m. in Washington. Bessent is expected to face tough questions on dollar policy, tariffs, and fiscal sustainability.
In Bessent’s remarks, he has expressed a desire for the 2017 tax cuts to become permanent and highlighted the importance of maintaining the dollar’s status as the dominant global reserve currency. He also regards tariffs as a crucial negotiating tool.
According to ING, the dollar could see an uptick if Bessent emphasizes tariffs as a key, potentially inflationary, instrument. A resurgence in the dollar, along with rising Treasury yields, may lead to slower BTC gains and inject volatility into risk assets overall. Therefore, market participants should remain vigilant!
What to Watch
Crypto Updates:
**January 17**: Oral arguments in the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia regarding KalshiEX LLC v. CFTC, where the CFTC is appealing a ruling favoring Kalshi’s Congressional Control Contracts.
**January 23**: The SEC has a decision deadline regarding NYSE Arca’s proposal to list and trade shares of Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL), which aims to become an ETF.
**January 25**: SEC deadlines loom for decisions on four new spot Solana ETFs, including proposals from Bitwise, Canary, 21Shares, and VanEck, all backed by Cboe BZX Exchange.
Macro Events:
**January 16, 8:30 a.m.**: The U.S. Department of Labor will release the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report for the week ending January 11, with initial claims estimated at 210K, compared to the previous 201K.
**January 16, 10:30 a.m.**: Confirmation hearing for Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent. Livestream link available here.
**January 17, 5:00 a.m.**: Eurostat will publish December 2024’s Eurozone inflation data, with estimates running at a 0.4% month-over-month final estimate.
Token Events
Governance Discussions:
The Aave community is exploring strategies for scaling its GHO stablecoin by potentially deploying a new revenue stream through bitcoin mining.
Meanwhile, the Balancer DAO will be voting on the deployment of Balancer v3 on Arbitrum from January 16 to January 20.
Unlock Events:
**January 16**: Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 2.2% of its circulating supply, valued at approximately $68 million.
**January 18**: Ondo (ONDO) is set to unlock 134% of its circulating supply, amounting to around $2.19 billion.
Token Launches:
**January 16**: Solayer (LAYER) will host a token sale accompanied by five months of points farming.
**January 17**: Solv Protocol (SOLV) will debut on Binance.
Market Movements:
BTC is down 0.47% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $99,217.43, registering a 24-hour gain of 0.64%. In contrast, ETH has decreased by 2.46%, now priced at $3,334.68, yet still up 3.22% over the same period.
As the momentum fluctuates, traders are advised to keep abreast of unfolding developments that may influence pricing trends in the crypto sphere.
