As Bitcoin (BTC) attempts to reclaim the $84,000 barrier once again, the flagship cryptocurrency is at risk of closing the month in negative territory. Analysts are speculating that BTC’s performance in the second quarter could resemble its astonishing rally in 2017.
Bitcoin Retests $84,000
Just a week ago, Bitcoin experienced a surge, retesting the $88,000-$89,000 resistance zone. The cryptocurrency climbed to a two-week high of $88,765 before settling within the $85,000 to $88,000 range for much of the week.
Unfortunately, as the weekend approached, BTC lost its grip on this range, falling to $84,000 by Friday and continuing its downward trend over the following days. By early Monday, Bitcoin had seen an 8.2% decline, reaching a low of $81,278 before staging a recovery.
Following this dip, Bitcoin rebounded from its recent lows, nearing the critical $84,000 barrier once again. This area has served as a pivotal resistance level since the cryptocurrency lost its post-November breakthrough range about a month ago.
Since then, BTC has struggled to maintain this level for extended periods. Amid ongoing market corrections, trader Daan Crypto Trades noted that Bitcoin has created yet another CME Gap, marking the fifth consecutive week with a gap created due to weekend price movements—all of which were subsequently closed “relatively quickly.”
This week’s CME gap, which lies between $82,500 and $84,100, was nearly filled after a morning rally. However, analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that “BTC will need to rally more than that to attempt a serious challenge for the recently lost Higher Low,” circa $85,000.
BTC To Consolidate For Longer?
Analyst Ted Pillows has suggested that BTC’s performance may witness a recovery in Q2, drawing parallels to its behavior in 2017. The analyst emphasized that during Donald Trump’s first term as US president, Bitcoin’s significant rally didn’t take off until the second quarter of 2017.
According to Pillows, “BTC’s real gains during Trump’s first presidency started after Q1 2017. For the first two months, BTC was simply consolidating in a range akin to our current situation.” Then, momentum kicked in April, propelling Bitcoin from $1,400 to $20,000 by December 2017.
If Bitcoin indeed adheres to its 2017 trajectory, it could be poised for a substantial rally towards a new all-time high later this year, given that Q2 has historically been a prosperous period for BTC, according to CoinGlass data.
Meanwhile, Rekt Capital suggested that Bitcoin will likely continue its consolidation phase a bit longer following the recent price correction. The analyst noted that BTC has yet to confirm a breakout from its triangular market structure.
Rekt previously explained that over the past six weeks, BTC has been consolidating between the two major bull market Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), the 21-week and 50-week EMAs, reflecting a pattern similar to mid-2021.
The analyst indicated that back in mid-2021, Bitcoin didn’t immediately break free from this triangular market structure either, instead wicking towards and into the 21-week EMA before ultimately rejecting, resulting in further consolidation between the two EMAs.
This scenario may suggest that the flagship cryptocurrency is destined for a bit more consolidation between the two EMAs before attempting to initiate an upward trend towards the Re-Accumulation Range Low of $93,500.
As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $83,297, reflecting a 1% increase within the daily timeframe.
