This Friday morning, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) in U.S. trade has made a notable recovery, bouncing back to approximately $84,000 after experiencing an overnight plunge into the $78,000 range. Despite this rebound, Bitcoin remains down by over 15% compared to its value just a week ago.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index saw a sharp decline overnight, dropping to 10, a figure not witnessed since the depths of the 2022 bear market. Although the index has slightly recovered and now stands at 16, it still indicates an environment of extreme fear, significantly lower than last week’s level of 55, which fell within the greed category. Levels above 75 are deemed as representing extreme greed, a threshold the index hasn’t reached since Donald Trump’s inauguration.
In the wake of Friday’s gain, Bitcoin has dipped slightly by over 1% in the last 24 hours, with the broader CoinDesk 20 Index also experiencing a downturn of roughly 2%. The sole major cryptocurrency showing positive movement is Solana (SOL), which has risen by 5% following the announcement by CME to launch SOL futures on March 17. Nonetheless, SOL is still down by 36% over the past month and remains significantly below its pre-election levels prior to the November victory of Donald Trump.
Weekend Market Considerations
As we approach the weekend, it is important to note that major stock markets will close, and even foreign exchange markets traditionally have their downtime between Friday and Sunday evenings. In contrast, the cryptocurrency market operates continuously, fostering opportunity, but perhaps leaving traders with a desire for a pause.
Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick noted a couple of weeks ago that weekends have not been particularly favorable for Bitcoin recently. Although last weekend showed modest gains, the trend leading up to that point had generally been characterized by sharp declines.
Kendrick posed a thought-provoking question on whether risk assets could rebound heading into this weekend following the recent adverse news surrounding tariffs. His likely assessment is that they will struggle to do so.
Conversely, one could argue for a contrarian perspective. With macro risks—particularly those defined by President Trump’s aggressive tariff proposals—likely already factored into the market, it’s conceivable that the situation may not worsen as anticipated. Trump has indicated a readiness to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and 10% on China starting next Tuesday, raising the question of how far he might escalate these taxes.
Conversely, with prices already having taken a significant hit and stock markets faltering this week, it may be the bearish sentiment that finds itself in the most precarious position over the next 48 hours. A potential agreement to avert or postpone these tariffs could shift the dynamics dramatically.
In summation, it is wise to remain prepared as the weekend unfolds.
