Bitcoin (BTC) opened the trading week flat above $94,000 as traders awaited updates from Beijing regarding the progress of a trade deal with the U.S. This moment of uncertainty comes as the CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a measure of the performance of major digital assets, dipped by 1.5% and traded below 2,700.
Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, analyzed the current state of XRP and Bitcoin, noting that both cryptocurrencies have recovered from the tariff shocks experienced in April but are still searching for a significant upward movement. He conveyed in a Telegram message to CoinDesk, “Investors may be overly cautious about risk assets such as crypto due to the current US macroeconomic climate, despite Bitcoin’s trend breaking away from its correlation with US equities.”
With major markets across Asia closed on Monday, including Hong Kong, mainland China, Japan, and Korea, the trading environment was marked by thin liquidity and lower trading volumes.
The macroeconomic spotlight shone brightly on the potential easing of U.S.-China trade tensions. Over the weekend, China’s Commerce Ministry announced it was reviewing a U.S. proposal to restart negotiations, while President Trump cautiously suggested that Beijing has an interest in striking a deal.
Ruck remained optimistic about the long-term outlook for cryptocurrency prices, stating, “We remain optimistic that crypto prices will surge to new highs in the long term as institutional adoption continues to deepen with Real World Asset (RWA) launches and integrations with crypto-native platforms.” However, skepticism lingers in prediction markets, where Polymarket bettors currently assign only a 21% chance that a trade deal will be achieved by June, alongside a 47% probability that the White House will lower tariffs by the end of May.
Despite the ambiguity surrounding the trade negotiations, the financial markets reacted. The Chinese yuan firmed to a six-month high near ¥7.19, with regional currencies also seeing a rally. Notably, the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) soared to a two-year high around NT$29.6 per U.S. dollar, spurred by $1.4 billion (NT$42.9 billion) in foreign equity inflows and growing confidence in Taiwan’s technology sector after TSMC reported a 60% increase in quarterly profits. While Taiwan’s central bank intervened to manage volatility, it emphasized that its actions were market-driven and not politically motivated.
BTC Range Bound?
The prolonged stagnation of Bitcoin can be attributed to ongoing resistance as it nears critical technical and on-chain levels. A recent report from Glassnode highlights that Bitcoin is struggling to surpass the $93,000–$95,000 range, a critical zone that aligns with both the short-term holder cost basis and the 111-day moving average. This area represents a crucial battleground for market momentum.
According to the report, “These levels represent a critical inflection point that must be upheld. Failure to stabilize above these levels would push the price back into the consolidation range, leading many investors back into a state of meaningful unrealized loss.” However, should Bitcoin ascend above $100,000, it is expected that the sell-side pressure diminishes due to a reduced volume of coins within that range. Surmounting the resistance around $95,000-$98,000 could therefore pave the way for new price exploration and potentially new all-time highs.
