This week has seen Bitcoin experience a notable rebound, briefly touching $86,000. This surge comes as a welcome recovery after a concerning dip to approximately $75,000 on April 8th. According to Santiment’s latest insights, this rally appears to be fueled by a combination of improving blockchain fundamentals and a temporary easing of global tariff concerns.
However, market analysts note that retail investors are primarily focused on price momentum rather than the macroeconomic factors at play. As such, this recent breakout has significantly boosted trader confidence, marking the most bullish sentiment since trade tensions reignited at the start of April.
Bullish On-Chain Metrics
In the wake of BTC’s rally, well-known crypto advocates such as Michael Saylor are garnering renewed attention. His firm, Strategy (MSTR), added an additional $285 million worth of Bitcoin to its holdings, signaling a sustained long-term conviction in the asset. Broader tech markets mirrored this optimism; for instance, Apple shares rose by 2.37% on Monday, following announcements of temporary tariff exemptions.
Despite these positive indicators, experts caution against over-interpretation of the current short-term relief. President Trump has reiterated that no sector or country will be exempt from upcoming trade measures, reaffirming that national security tariffs—particularly those impacting semiconductors and the electronics supply chain—remain imminent.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that these tariffs are expected to be implemented within the next two months, adding a layer of uncertainty that could inhibit market momentum in the foreseeable future.
Amid the persistent market volatility, Santiment has noted that the recent price resilience is underpinned by several on-chain metrics.
One significant indicator is the Network Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL), which is now consistently trending upward. Historically, sustained rallies in Bitcoin often require this metric’s rise, indicating that participants are realizing profits in a healthy, non-panic-driven manner. This increase in NRPL points to renewed confidence among long-term holders and traders alike.
Another critical signal is the ongoing decline in supply on exchanges. This trend suggests that fewer traders are looking to sell, opting instead to move their Bitcoin into cold storage or hold for longer durations. Lower exchange balances typically indicate reduced short-term selling pressure, which is a positive indicator for the market.
Additionally, accumulation among key stakeholders is intensifying. Wallets holding 10 or more BTC have reached an all-time high, now collectively holding 16.36 million BTC. This increase suggests that larger holders—often considered more strategic or institutional players—are accumulating during this period of volatility.
Conversely, retail investors seem to be offloading their positions, reflecting a familiar trend of smaller holders capitulating as larger ‘whales’ accumulate assets.
Blockchain’s Value Beyond Bitcoin
As tariff debates heat up, the cryptocurrency ecosystem offers a unique solution to enhance supply chain transparency. Blockchain technology is being employed to more accurately track goods’ origins and movements than traditional systems, assisting customs officials in detecting potential tariff circumvention.
Projects like Truebit are collaborating with government vendors to integrate blockchain into trade compliance systems, thereby broadening the utility of cryptocurrencies. With global tensions persisting—such as China halting rare-earth exports and the EU pausing retaliatory tariffs—President Trump is conducting a tariff review while President Xi strengthens ties with Southeast Asian nations.
Public sentiment remains negative; a CBS News poll from April 13th revealed that 59% of Americans perceive the economy as worsening, and President Trump’s economic approval ratings have declined. While crypto investors display modest optimism, the sector’s performance remains closely tied to traditional markets, and Santiment suggests that any indications of decoupling are likely to be short-lived.
The ongoing developments in Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market will continue to unfold as both investors and analysts closely monitor the interplay between macroeconomic conditions and on-chain metrics.
