Bill Barhydt, the founder and chief executive of crypto-banking platform Abra, ignited extensive discussion in the crypto community over the weekend by sharing a collage of global M2-versus-Bitcoin charts, initially popularized by macro investor Raoul Pal and researcher Julien Bittel. “I’ve seen over a dozen posts with different versions of the global liquidity M2 vs Bitcoin price chart – I’ve attached several here. Credit @RaoulGMI and his colleague @BittelJulien for discovering the trend,” he wrote.
Barhydt noted that these charts suggest a predicted dip in Bitcoin’s value over the coming days to around $100k, followed by a potential surge to a new all-time high (ATH) of $130k by August or September. He candidly added, “Or this could all be horseshit. Whatever.”
Will Bitcoin Follow M2?
Delving deeper into the macroeconomic framework, Barhydt asserted that “global liquidity needs to rise significantly in the coming months. Bitcoin remains the mother of all liquidity (re: debasement) sponges.” He articulated Bitcoin’s reflexivity: as fiat currency supply increases, Bitcoin absorbs the resulting monetary excess, which he believes will likely lead to gains spilling over into other Layer 1 platforms and, eventually, speculative altcoins — potentially igniting an alt season.
That said, Barhydt cautioned traders to remain vigilant. “Watch your leverage, touch grass and please please be civil,” he remarked, acknowledging that the anticipated pullback could manifest as either a gentle respite or a rapid decline towards $95,000 before any summer rally unfolds.
In response to a follower expressing concerns that the model might be oversaturated, Barhydt dismissed the notion that positioning had reached critical mass, stating that, “I’ve thought about that but we’re talking about trillions of dollars and billions of people. There might be thousands of people focused on this but not more. Even then retail writ large isn’t focused on crypto right now.”
Another critic pointed out that the liquidity data might not be adequately timed to predict daily price movements. To this, Barhydt concurred, noting, “I completely agree. Hence the ‘whatever’ reference. It’s macro directional on a weekly scale at best. But in that regard it’s been a very good tool.”
The liquidity-first thesis garners support from prominent figures in finance, with Pal recently proclaiming to Real Vision subscribers that “liquidity is the single most important driver of all asset prices,” estimating that fluctuations in global money supply account for as much as 90% of Bitcoin’s price action. Meanwhile, Bittel’s latest update reports global M2 near a record $111 trillion—a level he argues indicates Bitcoin is “still going higher.”
The pivotal question remains: will these macroeconomic forces elevate Bitcoin to the $130,000 trajectory or prove, as Barhydt expressed, to be “horseshit”? The answer hinges on the pace at which central banks resume balance-sheet expansion and how aggressively traders implement leverage in the upcoming weeks. For now, Barhydt’s predictions serve as both a roadmap and a reality check: the next market movement could be significant, but its effectiveness is tied closely to the liquidity it relies on.
As a point of reference, BTC was trading at $104,625 at press time.
