In the ever-evolving landscape of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC) recently concluded its best weekly performance since January, gaining a notable 6.79%. As market observers keenly monitor the dynamics at play, the question arises: are sufficient factors aligned to support continued price upside for the leading cryptocurrency?
This past Monday, April 14, both the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields experienced a decline, with the 10-year yield dropping by 8.2 basis points to 4.40%, and the 2-year falling by 8 basis points to 3.88%. These shifts in yields were influenced by potential tariff exemptions on essential tech goods such as smartphones, computers, and semiconductors, as the government aims to give US companies time to realign their production strategies. However, it’s crucial to note that these exemptions are characterized as temporary by US President Donald Trump.
US 10-year treasury bond yields chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The announcement of tariff exemptions coincided with a bullish week for Bitcoin. Following the formation of new yearly lows at $74,500, BTC surged by 15% to reach $86,100 between April 9-13. Despite this positive momentum, the interplay of easing US Treasury yields presents both opportunities and risks for Bitcoin. While lower yields may diminish the appeal of fixed-income assets, thus encouraging investment in riskier assets like Bitcoin, uncertainty stemming from temporary exemptions and ongoing trade tensions with China could heighten price volatility.
Bitcoin’s positioning as an “inflation hedge” remains a topic of debate. Current geopolitical uncertainties surrounding trade policies are exacerbating inflation concerns, lending credence to Bitcoin’s narrative as a store of value. Yet, recent inflation data presents a cooling trend; the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2025 recorded a year-over-year inflation rate of 2.4%, down from 2.8% in February, marking the lowest level since February 2023. Such trends could pose challenges for Bitcoin in the short term.
Related: Trade war vs record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin’s Key Price Levels: $88K to $90K
Trading insights from Material Indicators suggest that Bitcoin is maintaining a bullish stance above its crucial 50-weekly moving average and the quarterly open at $82,500. A solid weekly close raises the likelihood that Bitcoin may not revisit its previous weekly lows for the foreseeable future. The analysis notes,
“Bitcoin bulls now face strong technical and liquidity-based resistance between the trend line and the 200-day MA. Expecting ‘Spoofy’ to move asks at $88K and $92K before they get filled.”
Furthermore, Joao Wedson, the founder of Alphractal, posits that Bitcoin could be approaching a bullish reversal. He points to the narrowing Perpetual-Spot Gap on Binance—a vital indicator reflecting the price difference between Bitcoin’s perpetual futures and spot markets—as evidence of changing market sentiment.
Bitcoin Perpetual-spot price gap chart. Source: X.com
In a recent post on X, Wedson highlighted that the current negative gap signals diminishing bearish sentiment. Historical patterns indicate that a positive gap may lead to a Bitcoin rally. However, he also cautioned that negative gaps persisted throughout the bear market of 2022-2023.
Related: Michael Saylor’s Strategy buys $285M Bitcoin amid market uncertainty
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making financial decisions.
