Bitcoin began the second quarter of the year with significant volatility, plunging to a five-month low of under $75,000 at the outset of April. This drastic decline occurred during a critical juncture of heightened tensions related to US President Trump’s trade policies, particularly his escalating trade war with various nations.
As Trump’s intentions became clearer, and he opted to pause tariffs against all nations except China, Bitcoin started to rebound, surging by $20,000 within a matter of weeks. However, after crossing the $90,000 mark, BTC has since experienced a period of stagnation, trading within a narrow channel between $93,000 and $95,000 for over a week.
Although there was an attempt to break down below this range yesterday, the lower boundary held firm, and Bitcoin is currently testing the upper resistance level once again. According to various indicators, this phase of consolidation may be approaching its conclusion, suggesting a potential for a significant price movement.
Squeezing Bollinger Bands
Prominent cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez has pointed to the recent decrease in volatility, as demonstrated by the squeezing Bollinger Bands (BBs) on the 4-hour Bitcoin chart. The BBs, which consist of three lines, with the Simple Moving Average (SMA) in the middle, have shown a tightening pattern. Martinez cautioned that “a major price move could be just around the corner.”
The Bollinger Bands are squeezing on the 4-hour chart for #Bitcoin $BTC! A major price move could be just around the corner. pic.twitter.com/uvrel12QVp
— Ali (@ali_charts) May 1, 2025
While the BBs serve as a secondary technical tool and do not indicate the direction of movement, Martinez emphasized that Bitcoin stands a strong chance of rising if it maintains its position above the key support level of $93,198, which has been a reliable price point over the last week.
Furthermore, a breakout above $95,870 could propel Bitcoin towards a new all-time high, projected at approximately $114,230.
If #Bitcoin $BTC breaks and holds above $95,870, the next key target, based on the MVRV Pricing Bands, is $114,230. pic.twitter.com/iKPJvVaUtA
— Ali (@ali_charts) April 30, 2025
Surge in Accumulation
Two additional indicators are pointing towards an imminent significant movement in Bitcoin’s price, both connected yet distinct. First is the notable accumulation spree among whales, with reports indicating that these large market participants acquired $4 billion worth of Bitcoin within just two weeks.
Secondly, Bitcoin ETFs have similarly broken a previous trend of outflows, posting inflows from April 17 to April 30. Although this trend experienced a slight reversal with modest $56.3 million in outflows yesterday, it still falls far below the billions accumulated prior to that period.
Martinez underscored the importance of these large purchases, noting that the BTC Accumulation Trend Score has approached 1, indicating a significant portion of the network is engaging in accumulation activities.
The #Bitcoin $BTC Accumulation Trend Score is nearing 1, signaling that larger entities, or a significant portion of the network, are actively accumulating. pic.twitter.com/eJavuF8Dmb
— Ali (@ali_charts) April 30, 2025
Additionally, it is worth noting that the number of Bitcoins available on exchanges has continually decreased, reaching a five-year low. Although this trend is generally seen as a bullish indicator for future price movements, analysts from Swan have explained why the market has not yet responded accordingly.
In conclusion, Bitcoin appears poised for a significant price movement, driven by a combination of tightening technical indicators and growing accumulation trends among large market players.
